Serie A · Italy

MonzavUdinese

Saturday 29 August at 17:30U-Power Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.9

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls45 playersHighest: Nicolò Zaniolo, 1.97 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	2.50	71provisional	1.97	57%	29	017% 126% 224% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Armando IzzoDEF	Monza	1.98	82provisional	1.79	53%	28	020% 128% 225% 316% 48% 53% 6+1%
Sandi LovrićMID	Udinese	2.32	59provisional	1.52	44%	35	026% 130% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Warren BondoMID	Monzanow at AC Milan	1.56	81provisional	1.41	41%	19	027% 132% 223% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Keinan DavisFWD	Udinese	2.08	59provisional	1.37	39%	40	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jean-Daniel Akpa AkproMID	Monza	1.73	69provisional	1.33	38%	12	030% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Christian KabaseleDEF	Udinese	1.55	74provisional	1.28	37%	42	030% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	1.32	87provisional	1.28	36%	73	029% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Pablo MaríDEF	Monza	1.30	86provisional	1.24	35%	19	030% 136% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Thomas KristensenDEF	Udinese	1.35	82provisional	1.22	34%	49	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 → 2 of the 45 have since left the club — the squad is built from who has played for these teams, not from who is registered today, so they are shown rather than quietly dropped.

Tackles45 playersHighest: Andrea Carboni, 2.08 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Andrea CarboniDEF	Monza	2.22	84provisional	2.08	58%	26	016% 126% 224% 317% 49% 55% 6+3%
Oumar SoletDEF	Udinese	1.95	86provisional	1.86	53%	52	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Jean-Daniel Akpa AkproMID	Monza	2.41	69provisional	1.86	52%	12	022% 126% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Warren BondoMID	Monzanow at AC Milan	1.76	81provisional	1.59	45%	19	025% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	1.62	87provisional	1.56	45%	73	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Pedro PereiraDEF	Monza	1.81	77provisional	1.54	44%	32	027% 130% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Alessandro BiancoMID	Monza	1.76	77provisional	1.50	42%	32	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Matteo PessinaMID	Monza	1.66	78provisional	1.43	41%	11	027% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kingsley EhizibueDEF	Udinese	1.92	66provisional	1.42	40%	52	033% 128% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Pablo MaríDEF	Monza	1.45	86provisional	1.38	39%	19	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%

Shots45 playersHighest: Nicolò Zaniolo, 2.15 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	2.73	71provisional	2.15	60%	29	016% 124% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Daniel MaldiniMID	Monzanow at Cagliari	2.92	66provisional	2.13	58%	17	018% 124% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Milan DjuricFWD	Monza	2.29	71provisional	1.80	51%	17	021% 128% 223% 314% 48% 54% 6+2%
Dany MotaFWD	Monza	2.29	68provisional	1.73	49%	27	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Keita BaldéFWD	Monza	2.52	59provisional	1.66	46%	7	026% 127% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Keinan DavisFWD	Udinese	2.26	59provisional	1.49	42%	40	030% 128% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Gianluca CaprariFWD	Monza	2.40	49provisional	1.30	35%	20	036% 129% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sandi LovrićMID	Udinese	1.69	59provisional	1.11	30%	35	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jakub PiotrowskiMID	Udinese	1.83	52provisional	1.05	28%	22	041% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alessandro BiancoMID	Monza	1.10	77provisional	0.94	24%	32	041% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Warren BondoMID	Monzanow at AC Milan	1.03	81provisional	0.93	24%	19	042% 134% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Jurgen EkkelenkampMID	Udinese	1.32	63provisional	0.92	24%	50	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Andrea PetagnaFWD	Monza	3.32	25provisional	0.92	21%	3	049% 130% 211% 35% 43% 51% 6+1%
Georgios KyriakopoulosDEF	Monza	0.93	84provisional	0.86	21%	34	043% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Vakoun BayoFWD	Udinese	2.44	32provisional	0.86	21%	6	050% 129% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%
Adam BuksaFWD	Udinese	1.90	36provisional	0.77	18%	10	051% 130% 212% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Matteo PessinaMID	Monza	0.88	78provisional	0.76	18%	11	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Samuele BirindelliDEF	Monza	0.98	70provisional	0.76	19%	18	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Gaetano CastrovilliMID	Monza	1.35	50provisional	0.75	18%	10	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Oumar SoletDEF	Udinese	0.78	86provisional	0.74	17%	52	049% 134% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Idrissa GueyeFWD	Udinese	3.09	21provisional	0.73	16%	3	052% 132% 211% 33% 41% 51% 6+0%
Jean-Daniel Akpa AkproMID	Monza	0.92	69provisional	0.71	17%	12	051% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Samuele VignatoMID	Monza	2.09	27provisional	0.63	14%	4	059% 127% 29% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Stefano SensiMID	Monza	2.28	23provisional	0.57	12%	3	060% 127% 28% 33% 41% 5+0%
Patrick CiurriaMID	Monza	0.94	53provisional	0.55	12%	13	061% 126% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Hassane KamaraDEF	Udinese	0.70	69provisional	0.54	11%	47	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Christian KabaseleDEF	Udinese	0.60	74provisional	0.49	9%	42	062% 129% 28% 31% 4+0%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	0.51	87provisional	0.49	9%	73	062% 129% 27% 31% 4+0%
Danilo D'AmbrosioDEF	Monza	0.74	55provisional	0.45	9%	13	067% 124% 27% 32% 4+0%
Pedro PereiraDEF	Monza	0.52	77provisional	0.44	8%	32	065% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Nicolò BertolaDEF	Udinese	0.63	63provisional	0.44	8%	23	066% 126% 27% 31% 4+0%
Lennon MillerMID	Udinese	0.94	41provisional	0.43	8%	13	068% 124% 26% 32% 4+0%
Andrea CarboniDEF	Monza	0.42	84provisional	0.40	6%	26	068% 126% 25% 3+1%
Luca CaldirolaDEF	Monza	0.54	63provisional	0.38	6%	12	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Kingsley EhizibueDEF	Udinese	0.50	66provisional	0.37	6%	52	070% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Oier ZarragaMID	Udinese	1.03	29provisional	0.34	6%	16	074% 120% 25% 31% 4+0%
Thomas KristensenDEF	Udinese	0.34	82provisional	0.31	4%	49	074% 122% 24% 3+0%
Armando IzzoDEF	Monza	0.34	82provisional	0.31	4%	28	074% 122% 24% 3+0%
Rui ModestoMID	Udinese	0.86	31provisional	0.30	5%	9	076% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Alessandro ZanoliDEF	Udinese	0.37	68provisional	0.28	4%	17	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Pablo MaríDEF	Monza	0.29	86provisional	0.27	3%	19	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Juan ArizalaMID	Udinese	1.10	18provisional	0.22	3%	1	081% 116% 22% 3+0%
Stefano TuratiGK	Monza	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	30	0100% 1+0%
Răzvan SavaGK	Udinese	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	19	0100% 1+0%
Maduka OkoyeGK	Udinese	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	54	0100% 1+0%

All 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥ 2 of the 45 have since left the club — the squad is built from who has played for these teams, not from who is registered today, so they are shown rather than quietly dropped.

Fouls won45 playersHighest: Nicolò Zaniolo, 2.01 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	2.55	71provisional	2.01	57%	29	018% 125% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Daniel MaldiniMID	Monzanow at Cagliari	2.65	66provisional	1.94	54%	17	020% 126% 222% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Warren BondoMID	Monzanow at AC Milan	1.99	81provisional	1.80	52%	19	020% 128% 224% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Keita BaldéFWD	Monza	2.66	59provisional	1.75	49%	7	025% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+2%
Alessandro BiancoMID	Monza	2.02	77provisional	1.72	49%	32	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Armando IzzoDEF	Monza	1.68	82provisional	1.52	44%	28	025% 131% 223% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gianluca CaprariFWD	Monza	2.52	49provisional	1.37	37%	20	035% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jean-Daniel Akpa AkproMID	Monza	1.76	69provisional	1.35	39%	12	030% 131% 221% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Dany MotaFWD	Monza	1.73	68provisional	1.31	37%	27	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Matteo PessinaMID	Monza	1.48	78provisional	1.28	36%	11	030% 134% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%

Cards45 playersHighest: Nicolò Zaniolo, 0.26 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	0.33	71provisional	0.26	22%	29	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Armando IzzoDEF	Monza	0.28	82provisional	0.25	22%	28	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Pedro PereiraDEF	Monza	0.25	77provisional	0.21	19%	32	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	0.22	87provisional	0.21	19%	73	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Luca CaldirolaDEF	Monza	0.27	63provisional	0.19	17%	12	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Jean-Daniel Akpa AkproMID	Monza	0.24	69provisional	0.19	17%	12	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Thomas KristensenDEF	Udinese	0.20	82provisional	0.18	17%	49	083% 115% 21% 3+0%
Sandi LovrićMID	Udinese	0.28	59provisional	0.18	17%	35	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Alessandro BiancoMID	Monza	0.21	77provisional	0.18	16%	32	084% 115% 21% 3+0%
Christian KabaseleDEF	Udinese	0.22	74provisional	0.18	16%	42	084% 115% 2+1%

Saves3 playersHighest: Răzvan Sava, 2.85 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Răzvan SavaGK	Udinese	2.87	89provisional	2.85	52%	19	08% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Maduka OkoyeGK	Udinese	2.90	88provisional	2.85	52%	54	08% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Stefano TuratiGK	Monza	2.60	89provisional	2.58	46%	30	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.