PER90My betsAccount

Championship · England

Blackburn RoversvMiddlesbrough

Ewood Parklineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls51 playersHighest: Yuki Ohashi, 1.24 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.62
    034%
    132%
    220%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.14
    036%
    135%
    219%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.49
    040%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.44
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Aidan Morris

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.07
    040%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tommy Conway

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.18
    041%
    133%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Morgan Whittaker

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.25
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.02
    041%
    135%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.19
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Dávid Strelec

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.39
    043%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.13
    042%
    134%
    216%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Makhtar Gueye

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    40
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    2.04
    050%
    127%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Harry Pickering

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.38
    046%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marcus Forss

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    3.01
    050%
    128%
    212%
    35%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Mathias Jörgensen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.48
    047%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Finn Azaz

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.97
    045%
    134%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Samuel Silvera

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.57
    049%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.32
    051%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Augustus Kargbo

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    2.04
    050%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Hayden Carter

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.84
    047%
    134%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles51 playersHighest: Lewis Travis, 2.07 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    2.07
    O 1.5
    61%
    Model /90
    2.19
    014%
    125%
    226%
    318%
    410%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Aidan Morris

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    2.02
    O 1.5
    59%
    Model /90
    2.21
    015%
    126%
    225%
    318%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    2.01
    O 1.5
    59%
    Model /90
    2.19
    015%
    126%
    226%
    318%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.65
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.72
    029%
    126%
    219%
    313%
    47%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Adam Forshaw

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    1.64
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    3.27
    031%
    126%
    217%
    312%
    47%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.59
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.04
    025%
    129%
    223%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.52
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.90
    023%
    132%
    224%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Luke Ayling

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.69
    025%
    131%
    224%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Finn Azaz

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.70
    024%
    132%
    224%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Lewis Miller

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.79
    027%
    130%
    222%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ryan Alebiousu

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.45
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.59
    024%
    133%
    224%
    312%
    45%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Callum Brittain

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.43
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.44
    024%
    134%
    224%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Alfie Jones

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.42
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.49
    025%
    134%
    224%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dion De Neve

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    1.41
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    3.54
    035%
    129%
    216%
    39%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Sean McLoughlin

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.40
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.42
    025%
    134%
    224%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Neto

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.39
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.62
    028%
    131%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • George Pratt

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.38
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.53
    025%
    135%
    224%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Hayden Carter

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.46
    026%
    135%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Adilson Malanda

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.36
    026%
    135%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tom Atcheson

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.54
    029%
    133%
    222%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots51 playersHighest: Yuki Ohashi, 1.66 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.66
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.18
    026%
    128%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Morgan Whittaker

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.98
    029%
    129%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.46
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    2.12
    031%
    129%
    220%
    311%
    46%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Tommy Conway

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.45
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.79
    029%
    130%
    221%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.89
    033%
    131%
    219%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Mathias Jörgensen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.31
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    2.16
    037%
    128%
    217%
    39%
    45%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Dávid Strelec

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.94
    034%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Makhtar Gueye

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    40
    Proj.
    1.16
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.63
    044%
    127%
    214%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Finn Azaz

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.26
    037%
    133%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.25
    040%
    134%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.06
    040%
    134%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Samuel Silvera

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.91
    044%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Augustus Kargbo

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    2.49
    045%
    131%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.04
    041%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.23
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Aidan Morris

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.00
    043%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Sontje Hansen

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.86
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    2.90
    048%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Riley McGree

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.26
    048%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.35
    051%
    128%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marcus Forss

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    2.55
    056%
    127%
    210%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%

20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target51 playersHighest: Yuki Ohashi, 0.59 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.59
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    0.77
    058%
    129%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Tommy Conway

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.59
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    0.72
    058%
    130%
    210%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.59
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    0.85
    058%
    129%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mathias Jörgensen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.89
    062%
    126%
    29%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Dávid Strelec

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.52
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.78
    062%
    128%
    28%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Morgan Whittaker

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.46
    O 0.5
    35%
    Model /90
    0.61
    065%
    126%
    27%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.43
    O 0.5
    33%
    Model /90
    0.61
    067%
    125%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Makhtar Gueye

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    40
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.92
    070%
    122%
    26%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Finn Azaz

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.35
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.41
    071%
    123%
    25%
    3+1%
  • Samuel Silvera

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.34
    O 0.5
    27%
    Model /90
    0.66
    073%
    122%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Augustus Kargbo

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.82
    075%
    120%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.39
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Sontje Hansen

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.02
    076%
    120%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.31
    075%
    121%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.36
    076%
    121%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Riley McGree

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.26
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.40
    078%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Marcus Forss

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.26
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.86
    079%
    117%
    23%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.27
    078%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.41
    079%
    117%
    23%
    3+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    28
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.73
    081%
    116%
    23%
    3+1%

20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won51 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 1.36 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Aidan Morris

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.36
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.49
    030%
    132%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.52
    037%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.18
    036%
    133%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tommy Conway

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.36
    038%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.43
    039%
    132%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Morgan Whittaker

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.39
    041%
    131%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Finn Azaz

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.10
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.31
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.33
    045%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.09
    045%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.93
    045%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Dávid Strelec

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.25
    048%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Samuel Silvera

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.58
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Luke Ayling

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.87
    049%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Riley McGree

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.16
    051%
    131%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Yuri Oliveira Ribeiro

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.88
    050%
    131%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mathias Jörgensen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.24
    053%
    128%
    212%
    34%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.21
    054%
    128%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Lewis Miller

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.88
    052%
    130%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Callum Brittain

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.68
    O 1.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.69
    052%
    132%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards51 playersHighest: Solomon Brynn, 0.16 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Solomon Brynn

    GK · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.16
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.16
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.19
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Luke Ayling

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Harry Pickering

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.22
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Sean McLoughlin

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.14
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Adilson Malanda

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Hayden Carter

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Callum Brittain

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.13
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.16
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Alfie Jones

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.13
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Samuel George Edmundson

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.15
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Finn Azaz

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.15
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Aidan Morris

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Tom Atcheson

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.14
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Ryan Alebiousu

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • George Pratt

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Dominic Hyam

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.11
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Riley McGree

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.17
    090%
    110%
    2+1%

20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves51 playersHighest: Solomon Brynn, 2.61 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Solomon Brynn

    GK · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.61
    O 2.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.61
    09%
    120%
    224%
    320%
    413%
    57%
    6+7%
  • Balázs Tóth

    GK · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.49
    O 2.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.49
    010%
    121%
    224%
    319%
    412%
    57%
    6+6%
  • Aynsley Pears

    GK · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    2.31
    O 2.5
    40%
    Model /90
    2.36
    013%
    122%
    224%
    318%
    411%
    56%
    6+5%
  • Callum Brittain

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Adilson Malanda

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Alfie Jones

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Aidan Morris

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Luke Ayling

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Finn Azaz

    MID · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Samuel George Edmundson

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Neto

    DEF · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Tommy Conway

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Dominic Hyam

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Morgan Whittaker

    FWD · Middlesbrough

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Sean McLoughlin

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Hayden Carter

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • George Pratt

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ryan Alebiousu

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.