Championship · England
Blackburn RoversvMiddlesbrough
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls51 playersHighest: Yuki Ohashi, 1.24 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.62
034%132%220%39%44%51%6+1% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.14
036%135%219%37%42%51%6+0% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.49
040%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.44
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Aidan Morrisprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.07
040%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Tommy Conwayprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.18
041%133%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Morgan Whittakerprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.25
043%132%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.02
041%135%217%36%42%5+0% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.19
043%132%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Dávid Strelecprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.39
043%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.13
042%134%216%35%41%5+0% - Makhtar Gueyeprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 2.04
050%127%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Harry Pickeringprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.38
046%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Marcus Forssprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 3.01
050%128%212%35%43%51%6+1% - Mathias Jörgensenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.48
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Finn Azazprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.97
045%134%215%35%41%5+0% - Samuel Silveraprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.57
049%131%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.32
051%129%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Augustus Kargboprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 2.04
050%131%212%34%42%51%6+0% - Hayden Carterprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.84
047%134%214%34%41%5+0%
20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles51 playersHighest: Lewis Travis, 2.07 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 2.07
- O 1.5
- 61%
- Model /90
- 2.19
014%125%226%318%410%54%6+2% - Aidan Morrisprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 2.02
- O 1.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 2.21
015%126%225%318%49%54%6+2% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 2.01
- O 1.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 2.19
015%126%226%318%49%54%6+2% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.65
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.72
029%126%219%313%47%54%6+2% - Adam Forshawprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 1.64
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 3.27
031%126%217%312%47%54%6+3% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.59
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.04
025%129%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.90
023%132%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Luke Aylingprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.69
025%131%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Finn Azazprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.70
024%132%224%312%45%52%6+1% - Lewis Millerprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.79
027%130%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Ryan Alebiousuprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.45
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.59
024%133%224%312%45%51%6+0% - Callum Brittainprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.44
024%134%224%312%44%51%6+0% - Alfie Jonesprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.49
025%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Dion De Neveprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 3.54
035%129%216%39%46%53%6+2% - Sean McLoughlinprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.40
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.42
025%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Netoprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.62
028%131%223%311%44%51%6+0% - George Prattprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.53
025%135%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Hayden Carterprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.46
026%135%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Adilson Malandaprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.36
026%135%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Tom Atchesonprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.54
029%133%222%311%44%51%6+0%
20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots51 playersHighest: Yuki Ohashi, 1.66 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.66
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.18
026%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Morgan Whittakerprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.98
029%129%220%312%46%52%6+1% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 2.12
031%129%220%311%46%52%6+2% - Tommy Conwayprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.45
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.79
029%130%221%311%45%52%6+1% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.89
033%131%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Mathias Jörgensenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.16
037%128%217%39%45%52%6+2% - Dávid Strelecprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.94
034%131%219%39%44%52%6+1% - Makhtar Gueyeprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 1.16
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.63
044%127%214%38%44%52%6+2% - Finn Azazprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.26
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.25
040%134%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.06
040%134%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Samuel Silveraprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.91
044%131%215%36%43%51%6+1% - Augustus Kargboprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 2.49
045%131%214%36%42%51%6+1% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.04
041%134%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.23
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Aidan Morrisprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.00
043%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Sontje Hansenprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 2.90
048%131%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Riley McGreeprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.26
048%131%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.35
051%128%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Marcus Forssprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 2.55
056%127%210%34%42%51%6+1%
20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target51 playersHighest: Yuki Ohashi, 0.59 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.59
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 0.77
058%129%210%33%41%5+0% - Tommy Conwayprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.59
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 0.72
058%130%210%32%41%5+0% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.59
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 0.85
058%129%210%33%41%5+0% - Mathias Jörgensenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.89
062%126%29%32%41%5+0% - Dávid Strelecprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.52
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.78
062%128%28%32%4+0% - Morgan Whittakerprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.46
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 0.61
065%126%27%31%4+0% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.61
067%125%26%31%4+0% - Makhtar Gueyeprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.92
070%122%26%32%40%5+0% - Finn Azazprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.41
071%123%25%3+1% - Samuel Silveraprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.34
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.66
073%122%25%31%4+0% - Augustus Kargboprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.82
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.39
075%121%24%3+1% - Sontje Hansenprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.02
076%120%24%31%4+0% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.31
075%121%23%3+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.36
076%121%23%3+0% - Riley McGreeprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.40
078%119%23%3+0% - Marcus Forssprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.86
079%117%23%31%4+0% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.27
078%119%23%3+0% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.41
079%117%23%3+0% - Jeremy Leonel Sarmiento Moranteprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 28
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.73
081%116%23%3+1%
20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won51 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 1.36 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Aidan Morrisprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.49
030%132%221%310%44%52%6+1% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.52
037%131%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.18
036%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Tommy Conwayprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.36
038%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.43
039%132%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Morgan Whittakerprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.39
041%131%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Finn Azazprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.10
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.31
044%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.33
045%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.09
045%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.93
045%133%215%35%41%5+0% - Dávid Strelecprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.25
048%132%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Samuel Silveraprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.58
050%130%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Luke Aylingprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.87
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Riley McGreeprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.16
051%131%213%34%41%50%6+0% - Yuri Oliveira Ribeiroprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.88
050%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Mathias Jörgensenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.24
053%128%212%34%42%50%6+0% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.21
054%128%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Lewis Millerprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.88
052%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Callum Brittainprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.69
052%132%211%33%41%5+0%
20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards51 playersHighest: Solomon Brynn, 0.16 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Solomon Brynnprovisional
GK · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.16
085%114%2+1% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.19
087%112%2+1% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Luke Aylingprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Harry Pickeringprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.22
087%112%2+1% - Sean McLoughlinprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.14
087%112%2+1% - Adilson Malandaprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%112%2+1% - Hayden Carterprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%112%2+1% - Callum Brittainprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.13
088%111%2+1% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%111%2+1% - Alfie Jonesprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.13
088%111%2+1% - Samuel George Edmundsonprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Finn Azazprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Aidan Morrisprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%110%2+1% - Tom Atchesonprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.14
089%110%2+1% - Ryan Alebiousuprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%110%2+1% - George Prattprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%110%2+1% - Dominic Hyamprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.11
089%110%2+1% - Riley McGreeprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.17
090%110%2+1%
20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves51 playersHighest: Solomon Brynn, 2.61 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Solomon Brynnprovisional
GK · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.61
- O 2.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.61
09%120%224%320%413%57%6+7% - Balázs Tóthprovisional
GK · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.49
- O 2.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.49
010%121%224%319%412%57%6+6% - Aynsley Pearsprovisional
GK · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 2.31
- O 2.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 2.36
013%122%224%318%411%56%6+5% - Callum Brittainprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Adilson Malandaprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Alfie Jonesprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Aidan Morrisprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Luke Aylingprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Finn Azazprovisional
MID · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Samuel George Edmundsonprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Netoprovisional
DEF · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Tommy Conwayprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dominic Hyamprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Morgan Whittakerprovisional
FWD · Middlesbrough
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sean McLoughlinprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Hayden Carterprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - George Prattprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ryan Alebiousuprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 51 players shown, ranked by projection.