Championship · England

SouthamptonvStoke City

Saturday 22 August at 15:00St. Mary's Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls50 playersHighest: Sorba Thomas, 1.20 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.23
032%
135%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.25
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.37
039%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Róbert Boženík
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.33
045%
128%
214%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.19
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.09
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Lamine Cisse
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.66
047%
129%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.35
046%
130%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.21
044%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Sam Gallagher
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.95
046%
132%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.05
044%
133%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.47
047%
131%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ben Pearson
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.33
049%
130%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.03
047%
133%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Welington Damascena Santos
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.36
052%
128%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.02
050%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Milan Smit
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.69
054%
127%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
J. Tchamadeu
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
0.87
049%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.23
052%
129%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.35
052%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	1.23	87provisional	1.20	33%	45	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.25	76provisional	1.05	28%	65	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	1.37	68provisional	1.03	28%	79	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Róbert BoženíkFWD	Stoke City	2.33	40provisional	1.03	27%	22	045% 128% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	1.19	76provisional	1.00	27%	36	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	1.09	78provisional	0.94	25%	38	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lamine CisseFWD	Stoke City	1.66	50provisional	0.92	24%	34	047% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	1.35	61provisional	0.91	24%	68	046% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	1.21	67provisional	0.91	23%	49	044% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sam GallagherFWD	Stoke City	1.95	41provisional	0.88	22%	41	046% 132% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.05	74provisional	0.87	22%	43	044% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	1.47	53provisional	0.86	22%	18	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ben PearsonMID	Stoke City	1.33	56provisional	0.82	21%	44	049% 130% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	1.03	71provisional	0.81	20%	87	047% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Welington Damascena SantosDEF	Southampton	1.36	51provisional	0.78	20%	29	052% 128% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.02	66provisional	0.75	18%	39	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Milan SmitFWD	Stoke City	1.69	40provisional	0.75	19%	13	054% 127% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
J. TchamadeuDEF	Stoke City	0.87	77provisional	0.75	18%	67	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	1.23	54provisional	0.74	18%	31	052% 129% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	1.35	50provisional	0.74	18%	24	052% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles50 playersHighest: Caspar Jander, 1.89 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.89
O 1.5
55%
Model /90
2.20
019%
126%
225%
317%
49%
54%
6+2%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.83
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
2.71
025%
125%
220%
314%
49%
54%
6+3%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.62
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
2.04
024%
130%
223%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.57
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.87
024%
130%
224%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.52
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.80
026%
130%
223%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.49
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.81
025%
131%
223%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Ben Pearson
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.49
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.41
030%
127%
220%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Maksym Talovierov
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.70
028%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+1%
J. Tchamadeu
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.54
029%
133%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.74
031%
131%
221%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Ben Wilmot
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.37
028%
135%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Joe Aribo
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.12
034%
131%
219%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Aaron Cresswell
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.44
029%
135%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.93
031%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.72
031%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Cameron Bragg
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
2.78
041%
126%
215%
39%
45%
52%
6+1%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.06
036%
129%
219%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Jack Stephens
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.34
032%
133%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
James Bree
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.46
033%
133%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Ben Gibson
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.48
034%
133%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	2.20	78provisional	1.89	55%	38	019% 126% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	2.71	61provisional	1.83	50%	68	025% 125% 220% 314% 49% 54% 6+3%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	2.04	71provisional	1.62	47%	87	024% 130% 223% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.87	76provisional	1.57	46%	65	024% 130% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	1.80	76provisional	1.52	44%	36	026% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.81	74provisional	1.49	44%	43	025% 131% 223% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ben PearsonMID	Stoke City	2.41	56provisional	1.49	42%	44	030% 127% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Maksym TalovierovDEF	Stoke City	1.70	73provisional	1.38	40%	16	028% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
J. TchamadeuDEF	Stoke City	1.54	77provisional	1.33	38%	67	029% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Mohammed Bosun LawalDEF	Stoke City	1.74	68provisional	1.32	38%	34	031% 131% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ben WilmotDEF	Stoke City	1.37	85provisional	1.30	37%	73	028% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Joe AriboMID	Southampton	2.12	55provisional	1.29	36%	39	034% 131% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Aaron CresswellDEF	Stoke City	1.44	80provisional	1.28	37%	25	029% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	1.93	60provisional	1.28	36%	38	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.72	66provisional	1.27	36%	39	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Cameron BraggMID	Southampton	2.78	40provisional	1.25	33%	17	041% 126% 215% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	2.06	54provisional	1.24	35%	31	036% 129% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jack StephensDEF	Southampton	1.34	80provisional	1.20	34%	51	032% 133% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
James BreeDEF	Southampton	1.46	74provisional	1.20	34%	37	033% 133% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ben GibsonDEF	Stoke City	1.48	72provisional	1.18	33%	37	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

20 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots50 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 1.96 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.96
O 1.5
53%
Model /90
2.62
021%
126%
221%
314%
49%
55%
6+4%
Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.81
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
1.87
020%
129%
224%
315%
47%
53%
6+2%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.59
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.11
027%
129%
221%
312%
46%
53%
6+2%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.56
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.67
030%
128%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+3%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.63
031%
131%
220%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.41
036%
128%
217%
39%
45%
52%
6+2%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.68
034%
132%
219%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Lamine Cisse
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
2.24
039%
128%
216%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Cameron Archer
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.86
041%
129%
215%
38%
44%
52%
6+2%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.34
036%
132%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Ross Stewart
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.72
040%
130%
216%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Milan Smit
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.38
046%
127%
214%
37%
44%
52%
6+1%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.24
040%
132%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Sam Gallagher
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.30
042%
132%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Róbert Boženík
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.29
046%
128%
214%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.17
041%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.60
045%
129%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.44
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.15
044%
132%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kuryu Matsuki
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.54
049%
129%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	2.62	67provisional	1.96	53%	49	021% 126% 221% 314% 49% 55% 6+4%
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	1.87	87provisional	1.81	51%	45	020% 129% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	2.11	68provisional	1.59	44%	79	027% 129% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	2.67	53provisional	1.56	42%	18	030% 128% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+3%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.63	74provisional	1.35	38%	43	031% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	2.41	50provisional	1.33	35%	24	036% 128% 217% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.68	66provisional	1.24	34%	39	034% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Lamine CisseFWD	Stoke City	2.24	50provisional	1.23	33%	34	039% 128% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Cameron ArcherFWD	Southampton	2.86	38provisional	1.19	30%	65	041% 129% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+2%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	1.34	78provisional	1.16	32%	38	036% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ross StewartFWD	Southampton	2.72	38provisional	1.15	30%	39	040% 130% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Milan SmitFWD	Stoke City	2.38	40provisional	1.06	27%	13	046% 127% 214% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	1.24	76provisional	1.04	28%	36	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sam GallagherFWD	Stoke City	2.30	41provisional	1.03	27%	41	042% 132% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Róbert BoženíkFWD	Stoke City	2.29	40provisional	1.01	26%	22	046% 128% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.17	76provisional	0.98	26%	65	041% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	1.60	54provisional	0.96	25%	31	045% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	1.44	60provisional	0.96	25%	38	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	1.15	71provisional	0.91	24%	87	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kuryu MatsukiMID	Southampton	1.54	51provisional	0.87	22%	22	049% 129% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target50 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 0.78 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.78
O 0.5
50%
Model /90
1.04
050%
131%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.73
O 0.5
50%
Model /90
0.75
050%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.69
O 0.5
46%
Model /90
1.18
054%
129%
211%
34%
41%
5+0%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.60
O 0.5
43%
Model /90
0.80
057%
130%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.55
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
1.00
061%
127%
29%
33%
41%
5+0%
Lamine Cisse
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.49
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.89
065%
125%
28%
32%
40%
5+0%
Ross Stewart
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.49
O 0.5
36%
Model /90
1.16
064%
126%
27%
32%
40%
5+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.49
O 0.5
37%
Model /90
0.66
063%
127%
27%
32%
4+0%
Cameron Archer
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.45
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
1.09
067%
124%
27%
32%
40%
5+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.42
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.51
067%
126%
26%
31%
4+0%
Milan Smit
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.38
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.86
071%
121%
26%
31%
4+0%
Sam Gallagher
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.37
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.83
071%
123%
25%
31%
4+0%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.37
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.44
070%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Róbert Boženík
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.35
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.80
073%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.39
072%
122%
24%
3+1%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.37
074%
122%
24%
3+1%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.51
075%
120%
24%
31%
4+0%
Samuel Edozie
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
25
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
1.06
076%
119%
24%
31%
4+0%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.36
076%
120%
23%
3+1%
Joe Aribo
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.46
077%
119%
23%
3+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	1.04	67provisional	0.78	50%	49	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	0.75	87provisional	0.73	50%	45	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	1.18	53provisional	0.69	46%	18	054% 129% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	0.80	68provisional	0.60	43%	79	057% 130% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	1.00	50provisional	0.55	39%	24	061% 127% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Lamine CisseFWD	Stoke City	0.89	50provisional	0.49	35%	34	065% 125% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
Ross StewartFWD	Southampton	1.16	38provisional	0.49	36%	39	064% 126% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	0.66	66provisional	0.49	37%	39	063% 127% 27% 32% 4+0%
Cameron ArcherFWD	Southampton	1.09	38provisional	0.45	33%	65	067% 124% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	0.51	74provisional	0.42	33%	43	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Milan SmitFWD	Stoke City	0.86	40provisional	0.38	29%	13	071% 121% 26% 31% 4+0%
Sam GallagherFWD	Stoke City	0.83	41provisional	0.37	29%	41	071% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	0.44	76provisional	0.37	30%	36	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Róbert BoženíkFWD	Stoke City	0.80	40provisional	0.35	27%	22	073% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	0.39	78provisional	0.33	28%	38	072% 122% 24% 3+1%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	0.37	76provisional	0.31	26%	65	074% 122% 24% 3+1%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	0.51	54provisional	0.31	25%	31	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Samuel EdozieFWD	Southampton	1.06	25provisional	0.29	24%	16	076% 119% 24% 31% 4+0%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	0.36	71provisional	0.29	24%	87	076% 120% 23% 3+1%
Joe AriboMID	Southampton	0.46	55provisional	0.28	23%	39	077% 119% 23% 3+1%

20 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won50 playersHighest: Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza, 1.43 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.94
030%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.17
035%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.15
041%
132%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.18
041%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.22
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.58
046%
129%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.14
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.20
045%
132%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.19
045%
132%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.04
046%
132%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Lamine Cisse
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.56
050%
128%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.43
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.51
050%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.62
054%
125%
212%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kuryu Matsuki
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.41
052%
129%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Welington Damascena Santos
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.37
052%
128%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.16
050%
131%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Eric Junior Bocat
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.06
051%
129%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Ben Pearson
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.24
052%
129%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.10
053%
128%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.94	66provisional	1.43	40%	39	030% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	1.17	87provisional	1.13	31%	45	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	1.15	78provisional	0.99	26%	38	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.18	76provisional	0.99	26%	65	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	1.22	71provisional	0.96	25%	87	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	1.58	54provisional	0.95	25%	31	046% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.14	74provisional	0.94	25%	43	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	1.20	67provisional	0.90	23%	49	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	1.19	68provisional	0.90	23%	79	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	1.04	76provisional	0.88	23%	36	046% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lamine CisseFWD	Stoke City	1.56	50provisional	0.86	22%	34	050% 128% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	1.43	53provisional	0.84	21%	18	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	1.51	50provisional	0.84	21%	24	050% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher NzonziMID	Stoke City	1.62	46provisional	0.83	22%	30	054% 125% 212% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kuryu MatsukiMID	Southampton	1.41	51provisional	0.79	20%	22	052% 129% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Welington Damascena SantosDEF	Southampton	1.37	51provisional	0.78	20%	29	052% 128% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	1.16	60provisional	0.77	19%	38	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Eric Junior BocatDEF	Stoke City	1.06	65provisional	0.77	19%	59	051% 129% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Ben PearsonMID	Stoke City	1.24	56provisional	0.77	19%	44	052% 129% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	1.10	61provisional	0.74	18%	68	053% 128% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards50 playersHighest: Flynn Downes, 0.18 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.22
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
J. Tchamadeu
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.18
086%
113%
2+1%
Ben Pearson
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.25
086%
112%
2+1%
Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.15
086%
113%
2+1%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Maksym Talovierov
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.14
087%
112%
2+1%
Welington Damascena Santos
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.22
088%
111%
2+1%
Joshua Quarshie
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
Ben Wilmot
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Aaron Cresswell
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.13
089%
110%
2+1%
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
110%
2+1%
Jack Stephens
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.13
089%
110%
2+1%
Ben Gibson
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.14
089%
110%
2+1%
Gavin Bazunu
GK · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.11
089%
110%
2+1%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.16
090%
19%
2+1%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.13
090%
19%
2+1%
Aaron Ramsdale
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.11
090%
19%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	0.22	76provisional	0.18	17%	65	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
J. TchamadeuDEF	Stoke City	0.18	77provisional	0.16	14%	67	086% 113% 2+1%
Ben PearsonMID	Stoke City	0.25	56provisional	0.15	14%	44	086% 112% 2+1%
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	0.15	87provisional	0.15	14%	45	086% 113% 2+1%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	0.17	76provisional	0.15	13%	36	087% 112% 2+1%
Maksym TalovierovDEF	Stoke City	0.17	73provisional	0.14	13%	16	087% 112% 2+1%
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF	Southampton	0.14	87provisional	0.14	13%	77	087% 112% 2+1%
Welington Damascena SantosDEF	Southampton	0.22	51provisional	0.13	12%	29	088% 111% 2+1%
Joshua QuarshieDEF	Southampton	0.16	73provisional	0.13	12%	13	088% 111% 2+1%
Ben WilmotDEF	Stoke City	0.13	85provisional	0.13	12%	73	088% 111% 2+1%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	0.15	74provisional	0.13	12%	43	088% 111% 2+1%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	0.15	78provisional	0.13	12%	38	088% 111% 2+1%
Aaron CresswellDEF	Stoke City	0.13	80provisional	0.12	11%	25	089% 110% 2+1%
Mohammed Bosun LawalDEF	Stoke City	0.15	68provisional	0.12	11%	34	089% 110% 2+1%
Jack StephensDEF	Southampton	0.13	80provisional	0.11	11%	51	089% 110% 2+1%
Ben GibsonDEF	Stoke City	0.14	72provisional	0.11	11%	37	089% 110% 2+1%
Gavin BazunuGK	Stoke City	0.11	90provisional	0.11	11%	19	089% 110% 2+1%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	0.16	61provisional	0.11	10%	68	090% 19% 2+1%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	0.13	71provisional	0.11	10%	87	090% 19% 2+1%
Aaron RamsdaleGK	Southampton	0.11	90provisional	0.11	10%	30	090% 19% 2+1%

20 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves50 playersHighest: Viktor Johansson, 3.17 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Viktor Johansson
GK · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
3.17
O 2.5
59%
Model /90
3.17
06%
115%
220%
320%
416%
510%
6+12%
Tommy Simkim
GK · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.86
O 2.5
52%
Model /90
2.86
08%
118%
222%
320%
414%
59%
6+9%
Aaron Ramsdale
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.80
O 2.5
51%
Model /90
2.80
08%
118%
223%
320%
414%
59%
6+8%
Alex McCarthy
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.42
O 2.5
42%
Model /90
2.42
011%
122%
224%
319%
412%
56%
6+5%
Daniel Peretz
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
91
Proj.
2.41
O 2.5
42%
Model /90
2.38
011%
122%
224%
319%
412%
56%
6+5%
Gavin Bazunu
GK · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.26
O 2.5
39%
Model /90
2.26
012%
124%
225%
318%
411%
56%
6+4%
Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ben Wilmot
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Aaron Cresswell
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
J. Tchamadeu
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Maksym Talovierov
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ben Gibson
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Eric Junior Bocat
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Viktor JohanssonGK	Stoke City	3.17	90provisional	3.17	59%	71	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Tommy SimkimGK	Stoke City	2.86	90provisional	2.86	52%	15	08% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Aaron RamsdaleGK	Southampton	2.80	90provisional	2.80	51%	30	08% 118% 223% 320% 414% 59% 6+8%
Alex McCarthyGK	Southampton	2.42	90provisional	2.42	42%	12	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Daniel PeretzGK	Southampton	2.38	91provisional	2.41	42%	22	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Gavin BazunuGK	Stoke City	2.26	90provisional	2.26	39%	19	012% 124% 225% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	45	0100% 1+0%
Ben WilmotDEF	Stoke City	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%
Aaron CresswellDEF	Stoke City	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	25	0100% 1+0%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	36	0100% 1+0%
J. TchamadeuDEF	Stoke City	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Maksym TalovierovDEF	Stoke City	0.00	73provisional	0.00	—	16	0100% 1+0%
Ben GibsonDEF	Stoke City	0.00	72provisional	0.00	—	37	0100% 1+0%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	87	0100% 1+0%
Mohammed Bosun LawalDEF	Stoke City	0.00	68provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	0.00	68provisional	0.00	—	79	0100% 1+0%
Eric Junior BocatDEF	Stoke City	0.00	65provisional	0.00	—	59	0100% 1+0%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	0.00	61provisional	0.00	—	68	0100% 1+0%
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF	Southampton	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	77	0100% 1+0%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	0.00	54provisional	0.00	—	31	0100% 1+0%

20 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection.