Championship · England

Lincoln CityvPortsmouth

Saturday 22 August at 12:30LNER Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls28 playersHighest: Callum Lang, 1.70 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Callum Lang
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.70
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.02
023%
128%
223%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Colby Bishop
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.57
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.74
024%
131%
223%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Gustavo Caballero
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.01
030%
130%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Marlon Pack
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.91
035%
127%
219%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Josh Murphy
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.54
029%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Ebou Adams
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.54
030%
132%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Andre Dozzell
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.43
032%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Conor Chaplin
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.78
034%
132%
219%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Florian Bianchini
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
2.13
037%
130%
218%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Adrian Segečić
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.81
036%
131%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Terry Devlin
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.75
041%
129%
216%
38%
44%
51%
6+1%
Thomas Waddingham
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
17
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
5.57
042%
133%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+1%
John Swift
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.57
043%
130%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Regan Poole
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.02
040%
135%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Connor Ogilvie
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
0.99
040%
135%
217%
36%
42%
5+0%
Luke Le Roux
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.79
045%
130%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Zak Swanson
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.24
044%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jacob Brown
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
2.48
054%
123%
211%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Mackenzie Kirk
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
2.45
052%
126%
211%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Harvey Blair
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
29
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
2.77
046%
132%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Callum LangFWD	Portsmouth	2.02	76provisional	1.70	48%	40	023% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Colby BishopFWD	Portsmouth	1.74	82provisional	1.57	45%	74	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Gustavo CaballeroFWD	Portsmouth	2.01	64provisional	1.42	40%	12	030% 130% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Marlon PackMID	Portsmouth	1.91	65provisional	1.38	38%	75	035% 127% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Josh MurphyFWD	Portsmouth	1.54	79provisional	1.34	38%	58	029% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Ebou AdamsMID	Portsmouth	1.54	77provisional	1.33	38%	16	030% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Andre DozzellMID	Portsmouth	1.43	79provisional	1.25	35%	76	032% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Portsmouth	1.78	62provisional	1.23	34%	36	034% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Florian BianchiniFWD	Portsmouth	2.13	51provisional	1.21	33%	10	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Adrian SegečićFWD	Portsmouth	1.81	60provisional	1.21	33%	38	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Terry DevlinDEF	Portsmouth	1.75	57provisional	1.11	30%	72	041% 129% 216% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Thomas WaddinghamFWD	Portsmouth	5.57	17provisional	1.05	25%	11	042% 133% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+1%
John SwiftMID	Portsmouth	1.57	57provisional	0.98	27%	29	043% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Regan PooleDEF	Portsmouth	1.02	85provisional	0.96	25%	68	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Connor OgilvieDEF	Portsmouth	0.99	86provisional	0.95	25%	77	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Luke Le RouxMID	Portsmouth	1.79	47provisional	0.94	25%	14	045% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Zak SwansonDEF	Portsmouth	1.24	67provisional	0.93	24%	63	044% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jacob BrownFWD	Portsmouth	2.48	32provisional	0.89	22%	15	054% 123% 211% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Mackenzie KirkFWD	Portsmouth	2.45	32provisional	0.88	22%	14	052% 126% 211% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Harvey BlairFWD	Portsmouth	2.77	29provisional	0.88	22%	27	046% 132% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 28 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles28 playersHighest: Ebou Adams, 2.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Ebou Adams
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
2.46
O 1.5
68%
Model /90
2.85
012%
120%
223%
319%
413%
57%
6+5%
Zak Swanson
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
2.18
O 1.5
60%
Model /90
2.92
018%
122%
222%
317%
411%
56%
6+4%
Luke Le Roux
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
2.16
O 1.5
55%
Model /90
4.10
020%
124%
219%
314%
410%
56%
6+6%
Marlon Pack
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
2.03
O 1.5
55%
Model /90
2.81
024%
122%
219%
315%
410%
56%
6+4%
Andre Dozzell
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.90
O 1.5
55%
Model /90
2.17
018%
127%
225%
317%
49%
54%
6+2%
Jordan Williams
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.82
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.69
022%
127%
222%
315%
48%
54%
6+2%
Regan Poole
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.67
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
1.77
020%
131%
225%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
John Swift
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.67
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.65
027%
125%
221%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Terry Devlin
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.65
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.59
029%
126%
219%
313%
47%
54%
6+2%
Connor Ogilvie
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.53
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.59
022%
133%
225%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Josh Knight
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.51
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
1.95
029%
128%
221%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Márk Kosznovszky
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
3.00
035%
128%
217%
310%
46%
53%
6+2%
Hayden Matthews
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.39
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.16
033%
128%
219%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Gustavo Caballero
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.75
033%
132%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Callum Lang
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.47
032%
133%
221%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Conor Shaughnessy
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.88
035%
130%
219%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Josh Murphy
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.36
032%
135%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Conor Chaplin
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.65
035%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Colby Bishop
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.24
034%
135%
220%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ibane Bowat
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.15
043%
127%
215%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ebou AdamsMID	Portsmouth	2.85	77provisional	2.46	68%	16	012% 120% 223% 319% 413% 57% 6+5%
Zak SwansonDEF	Portsmouth	2.92	67provisional	2.18	60%	63	018% 122% 222% 317% 411% 56% 6+4%
Luke Le RouxMID	Portsmouth	4.10	47provisional	2.16	55%	14	020% 124% 219% 314% 410% 56% 6+6%
Marlon PackMID	Portsmouth	2.81	65provisional	2.03	55%	75	024% 122% 219% 315% 410% 56% 6+4%
Andre DozzellMID	Portsmouth	2.17	79provisional	1.90	55%	76	018% 127% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Jordan WilliamsDEF	Portsmouth	2.69	61provisional	1.82	51%	50	022% 127% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Regan PooleDEF	Portsmouth	1.77	85provisional	1.67	49%	68	020% 131% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
John SwiftMID	Portsmouth	2.65	57provisional	1.67	48%	29	027% 125% 221% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Terry DevlinDEF	Portsmouth	2.59	57provisional	1.65	45%	72	029% 126% 219% 313% 47% 54% 6+2%
Connor OgilvieDEF	Portsmouth	1.59	86provisional	1.53	45%	77	022% 133% 225% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Josh KnightDEF	Portsmouth	1.95	69provisional	1.51	43%	14	029% 128% 221% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Márk KosznovszkyMID	Portsmouth	3.00	43provisional	1.42	37%	15	035% 128% 217% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Hayden MatthewsDEF	Portsmouth	2.16	58provisional	1.39	39%	19	033% 128% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gustavo CaballeroFWD	Portsmouth	1.75	64provisional	1.23	35%	12	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Callum LangFWD	Portsmouth	1.47	76provisional	1.23	35%	40	032% 133% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Conor ShaughnessyDEF	Portsmouth	1.88	59provisional	1.23	35%	28	035% 130% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Josh MurphyFWD	Portsmouth	1.36	79provisional	1.19	33%	58	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Portsmouth	1.65	62provisional	1.14	32%	36	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Colby BishopFWD	Portsmouth	1.24	82provisional	1.12	31%	74	034% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ibane BowatDEF	Portsmouth	2.15	47provisional	1.12	30%	17	043% 127% 215% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%

20 of 28 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots28 playersHighest: Josh Murphy, 2.42 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Josh Murphy
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
2.42
O 1.5
64%
Model /90
2.77
014%
122%
222%
317%
411%
57%
6+7%
Callum Lang
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
2.37
O 1.5
62%
Model /90
2.82
016%
122%
221%
316%
411%
57%
6+7%
Colby Bishop
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
2.30
O 1.5
62%
Model /90
2.54
015%
123%
222%
317%
411%
56%
6+6%
Gustavo Caballero
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.98
O 1.5
53%
Model /90
2.81
022%
125%
221%
314%
49%
55%
6+4%
Adrian Segečić
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.92
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
2.87
024%
126%
220%
313%
48%
55%
6+5%
Conor Chaplin
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.91
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.77
023%
126%
221%
314%
48%
54%
6+4%
Florian Bianchini
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.70
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.99
029%
127%
219%
312%
47%
54%
6+4%
Ebou Adams
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.57
031%
131%
220%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
John Swift
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.13
035%
128%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Mackenzie Kirk
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
3.45
044%
127%
212%
37%
44%
53%
6+3%
Jacob Brown
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
3.09
050%
123%
211%
37%
44%
52%
6+3%
Andre Dozzell
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.27
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Marlon Pack
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.43
044%
128%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+1%
Harvey Blair
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
29
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
3.02
044%
131%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+1%
Luke Le Roux
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.60
049%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Márk Kosznovszky
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.68
053%
128%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Connor Ogilvie
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.81
048%
134%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Ibane Bowat
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.70
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.34
057%
126%
211%
34%
42%
51%
6+0%
Thomas Waddingham
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
17
Proj.
0.67
O 1.5
15%
Model /90
3.59
056%
129%
210%
33%
41%
51%
6+0%
Josh Knight
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.65
O 1.5
15%
Model /90
0.84
056%
129%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Josh MurphyFWD	Portsmouth	2.77	79provisional	2.42	64%	58	014% 122% 222% 317% 411% 57% 6+7%
Callum LangFWD	Portsmouth	2.82	76provisional	2.37	62%	40	016% 122% 221% 316% 411% 57% 6+7%
Colby BishopFWD	Portsmouth	2.54	82provisional	2.30	62%	74	015% 123% 222% 317% 411% 56% 6+6%
Gustavo CaballeroFWD	Portsmouth	2.81	64provisional	1.98	53%	12	022% 125% 221% 314% 49% 55% 6+4%
Adrian SegečićFWD	Portsmouth	2.87	60provisional	1.92	50%	38	024% 126% 220% 313% 48% 55% 6+5%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Portsmouth	2.77	62provisional	1.91	51%	36	023% 126% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+4%
Florian BianchiniFWD	Portsmouth	2.99	51provisional	1.70	45%	10	029% 127% 219% 312% 47% 54% 6+4%
Ebou AdamsMID	Portsmouth	1.57	77provisional	1.35	38%	16	031% 131% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
John SwiftMID	Portsmouth	2.13	57provisional	1.34	37%	29	035% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mackenzie KirkFWD	Portsmouth	3.45	32provisional	1.24	29%	14	044% 127% 212% 37% 44% 53% 6+3%
Jacob BrownFWD	Portsmouth	3.09	32provisional	1.12	27%	15	050% 123% 211% 37% 44% 52% 6+3%
Andre DozzellMID	Portsmouth	1.27	79provisional	1.11	30%	76	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marlon PackMID	Portsmouth	1.43	65provisional	1.04	28%	75	044% 128% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Harvey BlairFWD	Portsmouth	3.02	29provisional	0.96	24%	27	044% 131% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+1%
Luke Le RouxMID	Portsmouth	1.60	47provisional	0.84	21%	14	049% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Márk KosznovszkyMID	Portsmouth	1.68	43provisional	0.80	20%	15	053% 128% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Connor OgilvieDEF	Portsmouth	0.81	86provisional	0.78	19%	77	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ibane BowatDEF	Portsmouth	1.34	47provisional	0.70	17%	17	057% 126% 211% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Thomas WaddinghamFWD	Portsmouth	3.59	17provisional	0.67	15%	11	056% 129% 210% 33% 41% 51% 6+0%
Josh KnightDEF	Portsmouth	0.84	69provisional	0.65	15%	14	056% 129% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%

20 of 28 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target28 playersHighest: Callum Lang, 0.86 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Callum Lang
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.86
O 0.5
54%
Model /90
1.02
046%
132%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Colby Bishop
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.81
O 0.5
53%
Model /90
0.89
047%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Josh Murphy
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.75
O 0.5
50%
Model /90
0.86
050%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Gustavo Caballero
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.67
O 0.5
46%
Model /90
0.95
054%
130%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Adrian Segečić
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.64
O 0.5
44%
Model /90
0.96
056%
129%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Florian Bianchini
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.63
O 0.5
43%
Model /90
1.11
057%
128%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Conor Chaplin
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.53
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
0.76
061%
128%
28%
32%
4+1%
Mackenzie Kirk
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.47
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
1.32
068%
122%
27%
32%
41%
5+0%
John Swift
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.45
O 0.5
34%
Model /90
0.72
066%
125%
27%
32%
4+0%
Jacob Brown
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.44
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
1.23
070%
120%
27%
32%
41%
5+0%
Ebou Adams
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.38
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.44
069%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Harvey Blair
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
29
Proj.
0.35
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
1.11
072%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Andre Dozzell
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.36
074%
122%
24%
3+1%
Marlon Pack
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.42
075%
120%
24%
31%
4+0%
Luke Le Roux
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.49
078%
118%
23%
3+1%
Thomas Waddingham
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
17
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
1.30
080%
117%
23%
30%
4+0%
Márk Kosznovszky
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.46
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Ibane Bowat
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.39
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Regan Poole
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.21
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Zak Swanson
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.26
083%
115%
22%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Callum LangFWD	Portsmouth	1.02	76provisional	0.86	54%	40	046% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Colby BishopFWD	Portsmouth	0.89	82provisional	0.81	53%	74	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Josh MurphyFWD	Portsmouth	0.86	79provisional	0.75	50%	58	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Gustavo CaballeroFWD	Portsmouth	0.95	64provisional	0.67	46%	12	054% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Adrian SegečićFWD	Portsmouth	0.96	60provisional	0.64	44%	38	056% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Florian BianchiniFWD	Portsmouth	1.11	51provisional	0.63	43%	10	057% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Portsmouth	0.76	62provisional	0.53	39%	36	061% 128% 28% 32% 4+1%
Mackenzie KirkFWD	Portsmouth	1.32	32provisional	0.47	32%	14	068% 122% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
John SwiftMID	Portsmouth	0.72	57provisional	0.45	34%	29	066% 125% 27% 32% 4+0%
Jacob BrownFWD	Portsmouth	1.23	32provisional	0.44	30%	15	070% 120% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Ebou AdamsMID	Portsmouth	0.44	77provisional	0.38	31%	16	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Harvey BlairFWD	Portsmouth	1.11	29provisional	0.35	28%	27	072% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Andre DozzellMID	Portsmouth	0.36	79provisional	0.31	26%	76	074% 122% 24% 3+1%
Marlon PackMID	Portsmouth	0.42	65provisional	0.30	25%	75	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Luke Le RouxMID	Portsmouth	0.49	47provisional	0.26	22%	14	078% 118% 23% 3+1%
Thomas WaddinghamFWD	Portsmouth	1.30	17provisional	0.24	20%	11	080% 117% 23% 30% 4+0%
Márk KosznovszkyMID	Portsmouth	0.46	43provisional	0.22	18%	15	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Ibane BowatDEF	Portsmouth	0.39	47provisional	0.20	17%	17	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Regan PooleDEF	Portsmouth	0.21	85provisional	0.20	18%	68	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Zak SwansonDEF	Portsmouth	0.26	67provisional	0.19	17%	63	083% 115% 22% 3+0%

20 of 28 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won28 playersHighest: Josh Murphy, 1.71 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Josh Murphy
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.71
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
1.96
023%
129%
222%
313%
47%
53%
6+2%
Callum Lang
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.65
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.96
026%
128%
221%
313%
47%
53%
6+2%
Ebou Adams
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.51
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.75
028%
130%
221%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Colby Bishop
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.58
028%
131%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Gustavo Caballero
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.86
033%
130%
219%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Adrian Segečić
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.85
037%
130%
218%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Conor Chaplin
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.70
037%
131%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Connor Ogilvie
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.23
034%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Marlon Pack
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.56
041%
128%
216%
38%
44%
51%
6+1%
Florian Bianchini
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.97
041%
129%
216%
38%
44%
51%
6+1%
Andre Dozzell
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.17
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
John Swift
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.45
046%
129%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Regan Poole
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
0.96
043%
134%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Luke Le Roux
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.49
051%
129%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mackenzie Kirk
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
2.15
057%
125%
210%
35%
42%
51%
6+1%
Terry Devlin
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.19
053%
128%
212%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Josh Knight
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.98
052%
129%
213%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Márk Kosznovszky
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.55
055%
127%
211%
34%
42%
51%
6+0%
Zak Swanson
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
0.98
052%
130%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Jacob Brown
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.98
060%
122%
29%
35%
42%
51%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Josh MurphyFWD	Portsmouth	1.96	79provisional	1.71	48%	58	023% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Callum LangFWD	Portsmouth	1.96	76provisional	1.65	46%	40	026% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Ebou AdamsMID	Portsmouth	1.75	77provisional	1.51	42%	16	028% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Colby BishopFWD	Portsmouth	1.58	82provisional	1.43	40%	74	028% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gustavo CaballeroFWD	Portsmouth	1.86	64provisional	1.32	36%	12	033% 130% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Adrian SegečićFWD	Portsmouth	1.85	60provisional	1.24	33%	38	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Portsmouth	1.70	62provisional	1.17	32%	36	037% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Connor OgilvieDEF	Portsmouth	1.23	86provisional	1.17	32%	77	034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marlon PackMID	Portsmouth	1.56	65provisional	1.13	31%	75	041% 128% 216% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Florian BianchiniFWD	Portsmouth	1.97	51provisional	1.12	30%	10	041% 129% 216% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Andre DozzellMID	Portsmouth	1.17	79provisional	1.02	27%	76	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
John SwiftMID	Portsmouth	1.45	57provisional	0.91	24%	29	046% 129% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Regan PooleDEF	Portsmouth	0.96	85provisional	0.90	23%	68	043% 134% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Luke Le RouxMID	Portsmouth	1.49	47provisional	0.79	19%	14	051% 129% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mackenzie KirkFWD	Portsmouth	2.15	32provisional	0.77	18%	14	057% 125% 210% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%
Terry DevlinDEF	Portsmouth	1.19	57provisional	0.76	19%	72	053% 128% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Josh KnightDEF	Portsmouth	0.98	69provisional	0.76	19%	14	052% 129% 213% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Márk KosznovszkyMID	Portsmouth	1.55	43provisional	0.74	18%	15	055% 127% 211% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Zak SwansonDEF	Portsmouth	0.98	67provisional	0.73	18%	63	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Jacob BrownFWD	Portsmouth	1.98	32provisional	0.72	18%	15	060% 122% 29% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%

20 of 28 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards28 playersHighest: Marlon Pack, 0.25 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Marlon Pack
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.34
079%
118%
23%
3+0%
Andre Dozzell
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.21
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.24
081%
117%
22%
3+0%
Callum Lang
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.22
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Ebou Adams
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.22
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Terry Devlin
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.28
084%
114%
22%
3+0%
John Swift
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.28
084%
114%
22%
3+0%
Regan Poole
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.18
085%
114%
2+1%
Zak Swanson
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.21
086%
113%
2+1%
Connor Ogilvie
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.16
086%
113%
2+1%
Josh Murphy
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.17
086%
113%
2+1%
Jordan Williams
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.21
087%
112%
2+1%
Luke Le Roux
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.27
087%
112%
2+1%
Colby Bishop
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Josh Knight
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.17
088%
111%
2+1%
Gustavo Caballero
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.19
088%
111%
2+1%
Hayden Matthews
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.20
088%
111%
2+1%
Conor Shaughnessy
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.19
089%
111%
2+1%
Adrian Segečić
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.17
089%
110%
2+1%
Márk Kosznovszky
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.24
089%
110%
2+1%
Conor Chaplin
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.16
089%
110%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Marlon PackMID	Portsmouth	0.34	65provisional	0.25	21%	75	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Andre DozzellMID	Portsmouth	0.24	79provisional	0.21	19%	76	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Callum LangFWD	Portsmouth	0.22	76provisional	0.19	17%	40	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Ebou AdamsMID	Portsmouth	0.22	77provisional	0.19	17%	16	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Terry DevlinDEF	Portsmouth	0.28	57provisional	0.18	16%	72	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
John SwiftMID	Portsmouth	0.28	57provisional	0.17	16%	29	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Regan PooleDEF	Portsmouth	0.18	85provisional	0.17	15%	68	085% 114% 2+1%
Zak SwansonDEF	Portsmouth	0.21	67provisional	0.16	14%	63	086% 113% 2+1%
Connor OgilvieDEF	Portsmouth	0.16	86provisional	0.15	14%	77	086% 113% 2+1%
Josh MurphyFWD	Portsmouth	0.17	79provisional	0.15	14%	58	086% 113% 2+1%
Jordan WilliamsDEF	Portsmouth	0.21	61provisional	0.15	13%	50	087% 112% 2+1%
Luke Le RouxMID	Portsmouth	0.27	47provisional	0.14	13%	14	087% 112% 2+1%
Colby BishopFWD	Portsmouth	0.16	82provisional	0.14	13%	74	087% 112% 2+1%
Josh KnightDEF	Portsmouth	0.17	69provisional	0.13	12%	14	088% 111% 2+1%
Gustavo CaballeroFWD	Portsmouth	0.19	64provisional	0.13	12%	12	088% 111% 2+1%
Hayden MatthewsDEF	Portsmouth	0.20	58provisional	0.13	12%	19	088% 111% 2+1%
Conor ShaughnessyDEF	Portsmouth	0.19	59provisional	0.12	11%	28	089% 111% 2+1%
Adrian SegečićFWD	Portsmouth	0.17	60provisional	0.12	11%	38	089% 110% 2+1%
Márk KosznovszkyMID	Portsmouth	0.24	43provisional	0.12	11%	15	089% 110% 2+1%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Portsmouth	0.16	62provisional	0.11	11%	36	089% 110% 2+1%

20 of 28 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves28 playersHighest: Nicolas Schmid, 3.16 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Nicolas Schmid
GK · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
3.16
O 2.5
58%
Model /90
3.22
06%
115%
221%
320%
416%
510%
6+12%
Josef Bursik
GK · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
2.98
O 2.5
55%
Model /90
3.29
07%
117%
222%
320%
415%
510%
6+10%
Josh Knight
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.01
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.01
099%
1+1%
Connor Ogilvie
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Regan Poole
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Colby Bishop
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Andre Dozzell
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ebou Adams
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Josh Murphy
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Callum Lang
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Zak Swanson
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Marlon Pack
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Gustavo Caballero
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Conor Chaplin
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Adrian Segečić
FWD · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jordan Williams
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Conor Shaughnessy
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Hayden Matthews
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Terry Devlin
DEF · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
John Swift
MID · Portsmouth
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Nicolas SchmidGK	Portsmouth	3.22	88provisional	3.16	58%	69	06% 115% 221% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Josef BursikGK	Portsmouth	3.29	81provisional	2.98	55%	10	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 510% 6+10%
Josh KnightDEF	Portsmouth	0.01	69provisional	0.01	—	14	099% 1+1%
Connor OgilvieDEF	Portsmouth	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	77	0100% 1+0%
Regan PooleDEF	Portsmouth	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	68	0100% 1+0%
Colby BishopFWD	Portsmouth	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	74	0100% 1+0%
Andre DozzellMID	Portsmouth	0.00	79provisional	0.00	—	76	0100% 1+0%
Ebou AdamsMID	Portsmouth	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	16	0100% 1+0%
Josh MurphyFWD	Portsmouth	0.00	79provisional	0.00	—	58	0100% 1+0%
Callum LangFWD	Portsmouth	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	40	0100% 1+0%
Zak SwansonDEF	Portsmouth	0.00	67provisional	0.00	—	63	0100% 1+0%
Marlon PackMID	Portsmouth	0.00	65provisional	0.00	—	75	0100% 1+0%
Gustavo CaballeroFWD	Portsmouth	0.00	64provisional	0.00	—	12	0100% 1+0%
Conor ChaplinFWD	Portsmouth	0.00	62provisional	0.00	—	36	0100% 1+0%
Adrian SegečićFWD	Portsmouth	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%
Jordan WilliamsDEF	Portsmouth	0.00	61provisional	0.00	—	50	0100% 1+0%
Conor ShaughnessyDEF	Portsmouth	0.00	59provisional	0.00	—	28	0100% 1+0%
Hayden MatthewsDEF	Portsmouth	0.00	58provisional	0.00	—	19	0100% 1+0%
Terry DevlinDEF	Portsmouth	0.00	57provisional	0.00	—	72	0100% 1+0%
John SwiftMID	Portsmouth	0.00	57provisional	0.00	—	29	0100% 1+0%

20 of 28 players shown, ranked by projection.