Championship · England

WatfordvSouthampton

Sunday 16 August at 13:30Vicarage Roadlineups not announced

Referee

Matt Donohue

51 matches on record

Fouls per game

23.0

+2% vs league

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls53 playersHighest: Flynn Downes, 1.13 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.34
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.17
036%
134%
219%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mamadou Doumbia
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.81
043%
130%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.17
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.22
040%
132%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.37
040%
134%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.30
041%
133%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.14
041%
133%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.30
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.66
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.13
042%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.58
045%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Moussa Sissoko
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.34
047%
129%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.24
047%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Welington Damascena Santos
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.46
050%
129%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.04
048%
132%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.09
047%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Thomas Ince
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.85
052%
127%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.45
050%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Joshua Quarshie
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.97
050%
130%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.34	76provisional	1.13	31%	65	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.17	84provisional	1.09	30%	75	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	1.81	51provisional	1.03	28%	52	043% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	1.17	78provisional	1.01	27%	38	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.22	74provisional	1.00	27%	28	040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.37	66provisional	1.00	27%	25	040% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	1.30	67provisional	0.97	26%	49	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.14	77provisional	0.97	26%	25	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	1.30	67provisional	0.96	25%	43	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	1.66	51provisional	0.94	24%	40	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.13	74provisional	0.93	24%	43	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	1.58	53provisional	0.93	24%	18	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	1.34	61provisional	0.91	24%	60	047% 129% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	1.24	61provisional	0.84	21%	25	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Welington Damascena SantosDEF	Southampton	1.46	51provisional	0.83	22%	29	050% 129% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	1.04	70provisional	0.81	21%	81	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.09	66provisional	0.81	20%	39	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Thomas InceFWD	Watford	1.85	39provisional	0.80	20%	59	052% 127% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	1.45	50provisional	0.80	20%	24	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Joshua QuarshieDEF	Southampton	0.97	73provisional	0.78	20%	13	050% 130% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles53 playersHighest: Moussa Sissoko, 2.10 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Moussa Sissoko
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
2.10
O 1.5
56%
Model /90
3.11
023%
121%
218%
315%
411%
56%
6+5%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
2.09
O 1.5
60%
Model /90
2.42
016%
124%
224%
318%
410%
55%
6+3%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
2.08
O 1.5
61%
Model /90
2.24
014%
125%
226%
318%
410%
54%
6+2%
Jeremy Ngakia
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.98
O 1.5
57%
Model /90
2.45
017%
126%
225%
317%
49%
54%
6+2%
James Morris
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.91
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
3.11
030%
119%
217%
314%
410%
56%
6+4%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.73
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.06
021%
129%
225%
315%
47%
53%
6+1%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.64
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
1.99
022%
130%
224%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.59
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.86
024%
130%
224%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.50
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
2.21
028%
129%
221%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.48
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
1.79
027%
130%
223%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Joe Aribo
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.34
031%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.41
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.13
028%
132%
222%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.90
027%
132%
222%
311%
45%
51%
6+1%
Cameron Bragg
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
3.07
038%
126%
215%
310%
46%
53%
6+2%
Pierre Dwomoh
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.26
038%
125%
217%
311%
46%
52%
6+1%
Jack Stephens
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.48
029%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
James Bree
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.61
030%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Ryan Manning
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.64
031%
131%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Joshua Quarshie
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.59
034%
129%
221%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Kuryu Matsuki
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.25
036%
129%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	3.11	61provisional	2.10	56%	60	023% 121% 218% 315% 411% 56% 6+5%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	2.42	78provisional	2.09	60%	38	016% 124% 224% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	2.24	84provisional	2.08	61%	75	014% 125% 226% 318% 410% 54% 6+2%
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	2.45	73provisional	1.98	57%	62	017% 126% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
James MorrisDEF	Watford	3.11	55provisional	1.91	51%	20	030% 119% 217% 314% 410% 56% 6+4%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	2.06	76provisional	1.73	51%	65	021% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.99	74provisional	1.64	48%	43	022% 130% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.86	77provisional	1.59	46%	25	024% 130% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	2.21	61provisional	1.50	43%	25	028% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.79	74provisional	1.48	43%	28	027% 130% 223% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Joe AriboMID	Southampton	2.34	55provisional	1.42	39%	39	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	2.13	60provisional	1.41	40%	38	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.90	66provisional	1.40	40%	39	027% 132% 222% 311% 45% 51% 6+1%
Cameron BraggMID	Southampton	3.07	40provisional	1.38	36%	17	038% 126% 215% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Pierre DwomohMID	Watford	2.26	53provisional	1.33	37%	10	038% 125% 217% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Jack StephensDEF	Southampton	1.48	80provisional	1.32	38%	51	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
James BreeDEF	Southampton	1.61	74provisional	1.32	38%	37	030% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ryan ManningDEF	Southampton	1.64	71provisional	1.30	37%	69	031% 131% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Joshua QuarshieDEF	Southampton	1.59	73provisional	1.28	38%	13	034% 129% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Kuryu MatsukiMID	Southampton	2.25	51provisional	1.27	35%	22	036% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots53 playersHighest: Luca Kjerrumgaard, 1.91 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Luca Kjerrumgaard
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.91
O 1.5
52%
Model /90
2.58
022%
126%
221%
314%
48%
54%
6+4%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.90
O 1.5
52%
Model /90
2.61
021%
127%
222%
315%
48%
54%
6+3%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.80
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
2.30
025%
126%
220%
314%
48%
54%
6+3%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.58
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.79
030%
128%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+3%
Mamadou Doumbia
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.57
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.76
032%
127%
218%
311%
46%
53%
6+3%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.48
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.99
029%
130%
220%
311%
46%
52%
6+1%
Rocco Vata
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.87
034%
128%
217%
310%
46%
53%
6+3%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.54
028%
131%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Kwadwo Baah
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.93
035%
129%
217%
39%
45%
53%
6+2%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.53
034%
130%
219%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Thomas Ince
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
2.79
042%
127%
214%
38%
44%
52%
6+2%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
2.02
038%
130%
217%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.34
037%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
27
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
3.51
046%
128%
213%
36%
43%
52%
6+2%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.23
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.83
044%
129%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.39
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.27
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Pierre Dwomoh
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.54
050%
126%
214%
36%
43%
51%
6+0%
Cameron Archer
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.16
049%
129%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	2.58	67provisional	1.91	52%	43	022% 126% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+4%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	2.61	66provisional	1.90	52%	25	021% 127% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	2.30	70provisional	1.80	49%	81	025% 126% 220% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	2.79	51provisional	1.58	42%	40	030% 128% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+3%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	2.76	51provisional	1.57	41%	52	032% 127% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+3%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	1.99	67provisional	1.48	41%	49	029% 130% 220% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	2.87	46provisional	1.47	38%	45	034% 128% 217% 310% 46% 53% 6+3%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.54	84provisional	1.43	40%	75	028% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	2.93	42provisional	1.38	36%	54	035% 129% 217% 39% 45% 53% 6+2%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.53	74provisional	1.26	35%	28	034% 130% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Thomas InceFWD	Watford	2.79	39provisional	1.21	31%	59	042% 127% 214% 38% 44% 52% 6+2%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	2.02	53provisional	1.18	32%	18	038% 130% 217% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.34	77provisional	1.14	31%	25	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura SousaFWD	Watford	3.51	27provisional	1.07	26%	26	046% 128% 213% 36% 43% 52% 6+2%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.23	74provisional	1.02	27%	43	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	1.83	50provisional	1.01	26%	24	044% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	1.39	61provisional	0.95	25%	25	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.27	66provisional	0.94	24%	39	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Pierre DwomohMID	Watford	1.54	53provisional	0.91	24%	10	050% 126% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Cameron ArcherFWD	Southampton	2.16	38provisional	0.90	23%	65	049% 129% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+1%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target53 playersHighest: Luca Kjerrumgaard, 0.88 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Luca Kjerrumgaard
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.88
O 0.5
54%
Model /90
1.19
046%
132%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.72
O 0.5
48%
Model /90
0.98
052%
132%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.59
O 0.5
42%
Model /90
0.79
058%
129%
210%
32%
41%
5+0%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.58
O 0.5
41%
Model /90
1.03
059%
128%
29%
33%
41%
5+0%
Kwadwo Baah
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.53
O 0.5
38%
Model /90
1.13
062%
126%
28%
32%
41%
5+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.52
O 0.5
38%
Model /90
0.89
062%
127%
28%
32%
40%
5+0%
Mamadou Doumbia
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.51
O 0.5
37%
Model /90
0.90
063%
126%
28%
32%
41%
5+0%
Rocco Vata
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.48
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.93
065%
125%
27%
32%
40%
5+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura Sousa
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
27
Proj.
0.47
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
1.55
067%
123%
27%
32%
41%
5+0%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.46
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.59
065%
126%
27%
32%
4+0%
Thomas Ince
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.45
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
1.04
068%
123%
27%
32%
41%
5+0%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.42
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.45
067%
126%
26%
31%
4+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.42
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.76
068%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.39
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.47
069%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.38
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.44
070%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Ross Stewart
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.37
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.88
071%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.37
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.50
070%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Cameron Archer
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.82
073%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Moussa Sissoko
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.48
074%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.39
073%
122%
24%
3+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	1.19	67provisional	0.88	54%	43	046% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	0.98	66provisional	0.72	48%	25	052% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	0.79	67provisional	0.59	42%	49	058% 129% 210% 32% 41% 5+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	1.03	51provisional	0.58	41%	40	059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	1.13	42provisional	0.53	38%	54	062% 126% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	0.89	53provisional	0.52	38%	18	062% 127% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	0.90	51provisional	0.51	37%	52	063% 126% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	0.93	46provisional	0.48	35%	45	065% 125% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura SousaFWD	Watford	1.55	27provisional	0.47	33%	26	067% 123% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	0.59	70provisional	0.46	35%	81	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Thomas InceFWD	Watford	1.04	39provisional	0.45	32%	59	068% 123% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	0.45	84provisional	0.42	33%	75	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	0.76	50provisional	0.42	32%	24	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	0.47	74provisional	0.39	31%	28	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	0.44	77provisional	0.38	30%	25	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Ross StewartFWD	Southampton	0.88	38provisional	0.37	29%	39	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	0.50	66provisional	0.37	30%	39	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Cameron ArcherFWD	Southampton	0.82	38provisional	0.34	27%	65	073% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	0.48	61provisional	0.33	26%	60	074% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	0.39	74provisional	0.32	27%	43	073% 122% 24% 3+1%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won53 playersHighest: Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza, 1.37 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.85
031%
131%
220%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.26
039%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Othmane Maamma
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.40
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.23
041%
131%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.08
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.10
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.13
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.67
045%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.09
044%
133%
215%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Kwadwo Baah
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.83
049%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.16
047%
132%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.15
047%
132%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.37
050%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.45
051%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nampalys Mendy
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.16
050%
130%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Mamadou Doumbia
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.35
052%
129%
212%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Kuryu Matsuki
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.35
053%
128%
212%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Welington Damascena Santos
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.31
054%
128%
212%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.11
051%
131%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
0.93
052%
130%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.85	66provisional	1.37	38%	39	031% 131% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.26	77provisional	1.07	29%	25	039% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.40	66provisional	1.02	27%	25	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.23	74provisional	1.01	27%	28	041% 131% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	1.08	84provisional	1.00	27%	75	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	1.10	78provisional	0.95	25%	38	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.13	76provisional	0.94	25%	65	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	1.67	51provisional	0.94	24%	40	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.09	74provisional	0.90	23%	43	044% 133% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	1.83	42provisional	0.86	22%	54	049% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	1.16	67provisional	0.86	22%	43	047% 132% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	1.15	67provisional	0.86	22%	49	047% 132% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	1.37	53provisional	0.80	20%	18	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	1.45	50provisional	0.80	20%	24	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	1.16	61provisional	0.79	20%	25	050% 130% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	1.35	51provisional	0.77	19%	52	052% 129% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kuryu MatsukiMID	Southampton	1.35	51provisional	0.76	19%	22	053% 128% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Welington Damascena SantosDEF	Southampton	1.31	51provisional	0.75	19%	29	054% 128% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	1.11	60provisional	0.74	18%	38	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	0.93	70provisional	0.72	18%	81	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards53 playersHighest: Flynn Downes, 0.20 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.24
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.19
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Hector Kyprianou
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.18
086%
113%
2+1%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.15
086%
113%
2+1%
Welington Damascena Santos
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.24
088%
111%
2+1%
Joshua Quarshie
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
112%
2+1%
Nestory Irankunda
FWD · Watford
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.23
088%
111%
2+1%
Matthew Pollock
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Edo Kayembe
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.16
089%
111%
2+1%
Jack Stephens
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.14
089%
111%
2+1%
Jeremy Ngakia
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
111%
2+1%
Gavin Bazunu
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.12
089%
111%
2+1%
Moussa Sissoko
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.18
089%
110%
2+1%
Marc Bola
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.13
089%
110%
2+1%
Aaron Ramsdale
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.11
089%
110%
2+1%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.15
090%
110%
2+1%
Nathan Wood-Gordon
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.14
090%
110%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	0.24	76provisional	0.20	18%	65	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	0.19	84provisional	0.18	16%	75	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	0.18	77provisional	0.15	14%	25	086% 113% 2+1%
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF	Southampton	0.15	87provisional	0.15	14%	77	086% 113% 2+1%
Welington Damascena SantosDEF	Southampton	0.24	51provisional	0.14	12%	29	088% 111% 2+1%
Joshua QuarshieDEF	Southampton	0.17	73provisional	0.14	13%	13	087% 112% 2+1%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	0.16	74provisional	0.14	13%	43	087% 112% 2+1%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	0.16	78provisional	0.13	12%	38	088% 112% 2+1%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	0.23	51provisional	0.13	12%	40	088% 111% 2+1%
Matthew PollockDEF	Watford	0.14	84provisional	0.13	12%	80	088% 111% 2+1%
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	0.15	74provisional	0.12	12%	28	088% 111% 2+1%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	0.16	70provisional	0.12	11%	81	089% 111% 2+1%
Jack StephensDEF	Southampton	0.14	80provisional	0.12	11%	51	089% 111% 2+1%
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	0.15	73provisional	0.12	11%	62	089% 111% 2+1%
Gavin BazunuGK	Southampton	0.12	90provisional	0.12	11%	19	089% 111% 2+1%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	0.18	61provisional	0.12	11%	60	089% 110% 2+1%
Marc BolaDEF	Watford	0.13	78provisional	0.11	11%	37	089% 110% 2+1%
Aaron RamsdaleGK	Southampton	0.11	90provisional	0.11	11%	30	089% 110% 2+1%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	0.15	67provisional	0.11	10%	49	090% 110% 2+1%
Nathan Wood-GordonDEF	Southampton	0.14	72provisional	0.11	10%	48	090% 110% 2+1%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves53 playersHighest: Aaron Ramsdale, 3.48 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Aaron Ramsdale
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
3.48
O 2.5
64%
Model /90
3.48
05%
113%
219%
320%
417%
512%
6+16%
Alex McCarthy
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
3.01
O 2.5
55%
Model /90
3.01
07%
116%
221%
320%
415%
510%
6+11%
Daniel Peretz
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
91
Proj.
3.01
O 2.5
55%
Model /90
2.96
07%
116%
221%
320%
415%
510%
6+11%
Gavin Bazunu
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.82
O 2.5
52%
Model /90
2.82
08%
118%
222%
320%
414%
59%
6+9%
Egil Selvik
GK · Watford
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
2.51
O 2.5
45%
Model /90
2.53
010%
121%
224%
319%
413%
57%
6+6%
Daniel Bachmann
GK · Watford
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
2.44
O 2.5
43%
Model /90
2.54
011%
122%
224%
319%
412%
57%
6+5%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jack Stephens
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Joshua Quarshie
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
James Bree
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ryan Manning
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nathan Wood-Gordon
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Imran Louza
MID · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Matthew Pollock
DEF · Watford
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Aaron RamsdaleGK	Southampton	3.48	90provisional	3.48	64%	30	05% 113% 219% 320% 417% 512% 6+16%
Alex McCarthyGK	Southampton	3.01	90provisional	3.01	55%	12	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Daniel PeretzGK	Southampton	2.96	91provisional	3.01	55%	22	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Gavin BazunuGK	Southampton	2.82	90provisional	2.82	52%	19	08% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Egil SelvikGK	Watford	2.53	89provisional	2.51	45%	56	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Daniel BachmannGK	Watford	2.54	87provisional	2.44	43%	22	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF	Southampton	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	77	0100% 1+0%
Jack StephensDEF	Southampton	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	51	0100% 1+0%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	65	0100% 1+0%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	0.00	78provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%
Joshua QuarshieDEF	Southampton	0.00	73provisional	0.00	—	13	0100% 1+0%
James BreeDEF	Southampton	0.00	74provisional	0.00	—	37	0100% 1+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	0.00	74provisional	0.00	—	43	0100% 1+0%
Ryan ManningDEF	Southampton	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	69	0100% 1+0%
Nathan Wood-GordonDEF	Southampton	0.00	72provisional	0.00	—	48	0100% 1+0%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	0.00	67provisional	0.00	—	49	0100% 1+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	0.00	66provisional	0.00	—	39	0100% 1+0%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%
Imran LouzaMID	Watford	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	75	0100% 1+0%
Matthew PollockDEF	Watford	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	80	0100% 1+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.