PER90My betsAccount

Championship · England

Sheffield UnitedvBirmingham City

Bramall Lanelineups not announced

Referee

Gavin Ward

49 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.3

-6% vs league

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls49 playersHighest: Jay Stansfield, 1.25 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Jay Stansfield

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    1.25
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.49
    031%
    134%
    221%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sydie Peck

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.28
    037%
    133%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tomoki Iwata

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.14
    037%
    135%
    219%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Patrick Bamford

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.38
    041%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • August Priske

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.65
    044%
    130%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Seung-Ho Paik

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.13
    040%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Carlos Vicente Robles

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.50
    044%
    131%
    215%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.38
    043%
    131%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Demarai Gray

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.41
    041%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Gustavo Hamer

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.14
    043%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jhon Elmer Solis Romero

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.25
    044%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Marvin Ducksch

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.37
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tyrese Campbell

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.40
    048%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Phil Neumann

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.81
    046%
    135%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Christoph Klarer

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.79
    047%
    135%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Japhet Tanganga

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.79
    047%
    135%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Callum O'Hare

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.96
    049%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Kai Wagner

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.79
    048%
    134%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Keshi Anderson

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    38
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.78
    052%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Kyogo Furuhashi

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.85
    054%
    129%
    211%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles49 playersHighest: Tomoki Iwata, 1.72 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Tomoki Iwata

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.72
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    1.84
    019%
    130%
    226%
    315%
    47%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Seung-Ho Paik

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.57
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    1.80
    022%
    131%
    224%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Jhon Elmer Solis Romero

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.51
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.08
    026%
    131%
    223%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Kai Wagner

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.53
    023%
    133%
    225%
    312%
    45%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sydie Peck

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.46
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.72
    026%
    131%
    223%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Phil Neumann

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.37
    026%
    135%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Gustavo Hamer

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.32
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.64
    030%
    133%
    222%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Christoph Klarer

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    1.30
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.30
    027%
    135%
    223%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Callum O'Hare

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.58
    031%
    133%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jaïro Riedewald

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.92
    032%
    131%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marc Leonard

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    2.50
    035%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Japhet Tanganga

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.28
    029%
    136%
    222%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Harrison Burrows

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.25
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.51
    033%
    132%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jack Robinson

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.49
    030%
    135%
    222%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Femi Seriki

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.21
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.92
    037%
    129%
    218%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ben Mee

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.21
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.30
    030%
    136%
    222%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ollie Arblaster

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.20
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.90
    036%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Alexander Cochrane

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.20
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.48
    034%
    132%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Bright Osayi-Samuel

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    1.17
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.84
    037%
    130%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jack Robinson

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    1.16
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.26
    033%
    134%
    220%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots49 playersHighest: Patrick Bamford, 1.75 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Patrick Bamford

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.75
    O 1.5
    48%
    Model /90
    2.42
    025%
    127%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Jay Stansfield

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    1.51
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.80
    026%
    131%
    222%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Tyrese Campbell

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    2.32
    034%
    130%
    218%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Demarai Gray

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.93
    032%
    131%
    219%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Sydie Peck

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.48
    034%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.77
    036%
    130%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Gustavo Hamer

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.54
    034%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Thomas Christopher Cannon

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    2.36
    039%
    128%
    216%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Marvin Ducksch

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.83
    037%
    130%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Carlos Vicente Robles

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    1.21
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.86
    038%
    129%
    217%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • August Priske

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.92
    041%
    129%
    216%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Callum O'Hare

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.35
    038%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tomoki Iwata

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.98
    043%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Seung-Ho Paik

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.98
    045%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Kyogo Furuhashi

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    2.12
    050%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Keshi Anderson

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    38
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.97
    050%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Daniel William John Ings

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    26
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    2.74
    053%
    129%
    211%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Jaïro Riedewald

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.20
    050%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jhon Elmer Solis Romero

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.07
    049%
    131%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Ollie Arblaster

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.22
    051%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target49 playersHighest: Patrick Bamford, 0.88 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Patrick Bamford

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 0.5
    54%
    Model /90
    1.21
    046%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tyrese Campbell

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.55
    O 0.5
    40%
    Model /90
    0.96
    060%
    128%
    29%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Marvin Ducksch

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.53
    O 0.5
    39%
    Model /90
    0.80
    061%
    127%
    29%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Carlos Vicente Robles

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.52
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.81
    062%
    126%
    28%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jay Stansfield

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.49
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.59
    062%
    128%
    28%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Demarai Gray

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.43
    O 0.5
    33%
    Model /90
    0.62
    067%
    126%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Thomas Christopher Cannon

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    0.78
    069%
    123%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • August Priske

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    0.68
    069%
    123%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Gustavo Hamer

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.39
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    0.48
    069%
    124%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.37
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.52
    071%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Sydie Peck

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.36
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.43
    071%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Callum O'Hare

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.35
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    0.43
    072%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Keshi Anderson

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    38
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.72
    075%
    120%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Daniel William John Ings

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    26
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.96
    077%
    118%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Kyogo Furuhashi

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.70
    077%
    118%
    23%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Jhon Elmer Solis Romero

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.35
    078%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Jaïro Riedewald

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.38
    079%
    118%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Lewis Koumas

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    32
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.68
    080%
    117%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Tomoki Iwata

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.24
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.26
    079%
    118%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Seung-Ho Paik

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.24
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.27
    079%
    118%
    22%
    3+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won49 playersHighest: Femi Seriki, 1.26 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Femi Seriki

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.98
    039%
    128%
    216%
    39%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Patrick Bamford

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.56
    038%
    131%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Callum O'Hare

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.32
    039%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tom Davies

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    40
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    2.24
    047%
    128%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Demarai Gray

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.46
    041%
    132%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Gustavo Hamer

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.18
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.35
    044%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Seung-Ho Paik

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.09
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tomoki Iwata

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.01
    042%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Carlos Vicente Robles

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.42
    046%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sydie Peck

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.06
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jay Stansfield

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.07
    044%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Harrison Burrows

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.03
    047%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jhon Elmer Solis Romero

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.15
    047%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • August Priske

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.33
    052%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Japhet Tanganga

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.80
    048%
    133%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Ollie Arblaster

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.24
    051%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tyrese Campbell

    FWD · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.34
    051%
    130%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Marvin Ducksch

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.16
    051%
    130%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jaïro Riedewald

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.14
    051%
    130%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards49 playersHighest: Sydie Peck, 0.16 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Sydie Peck

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.19
    085%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Gustavo Hamer

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.19
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Tomoki Iwata

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.16
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Christoph Klarer

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.14
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Japhet Tanganga

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.14
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Seung-Ho Paik

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Jay Stansfield

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Jhon Elmer Solis Romero

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.18
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Phil Neumann

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.13
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Jack Robinson

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.15
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Kai Wagner

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.13
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Jack Robinson

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Ben Mee

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Mark McGuinness

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.14
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Adam Davies

    GK · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.12
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • James Beadle

    GK · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.11
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Bright Osayi-Samuel

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.17
    090%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Michael Cooper

    GK · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.11
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Alexander Cochrane

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.14
    090%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Jaïro Riedewald

    MID · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.16
    090%
    19%
    2+1%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves49 playersHighest: James Beadle, 2.96 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • James Beadle

    GK · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.96
    O 2.5
    54%
    Model /90
    2.96
    07%
    117%
    222%
    320%
    415%
    59%
    6+10%
  • Ryan Allsop

    GK · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.82
    O 2.5
    52%
    Model /90
    2.82
    08%
    118%
    222%
    320%
    414%
    59%
    6+9%
  • Michael Cooper

    GK · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    2.44
    O 2.5
    43%
    Model /90
    2.46
    011%
    122%
    224%
    319%
    412%
    57%
    6+5%
  • Adam Davies

    GK · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    2.36
    O 2.5
    41%
    Model /90
    2.44
    012%
    123%
    224%
    318%
    412%
    56%
    6+5%
  • Christoph Klarer

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Phil Neumann

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Kai Wagner

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Tomoki Iwata

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Seung-Ho Paik

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jay Stansfield

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Alexander Cochrane

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jack Robinson

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jhon Elmer Solis Romero

    MID · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Demarai Gray

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Japhet Tanganga

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Marvin Ducksch

    FWD · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Bright Osayi-Samuel

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ben Mee

    DEF · Sheffield United

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jack Robinson

    DEF · Birmingham City

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.