Championship · England
Sheffield UnitedvBirmingham City
Referee
Gavin Ward
49 matches on record
Fouls per game
21.3
-6% vs league
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls49 playersHighest: Jay Stansfield, 1.25 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Jay Stansfieldprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.49
031%134%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Sydie Peckprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.28
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Tomoki Iwataprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.14
037%135%219%37%42%51%6+0% - Patrick Bamfordprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.38
041%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - August Priskeprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.65
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Seung-Ho Paikprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.13
040%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Carlos Vicente Roblesprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.50
044%131%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.38
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Demarai Grayprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.41
041%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Gustavo Hamerprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.14
043%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Jhon Elmer Solis Romeroprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.25
044%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Marvin Duckschprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.37
045%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Tyrese Campbellprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.40
048%131%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Phil Neumannprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.81
046%135%214%34%41%5+0% - Christoph Klarerprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.79
047%135%214%34%41%5+0% - Japhet Tangangaprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.79
047%135%214%34%41%5+0% - Callum O'Hareprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.96
049%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Kai Wagnerprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.79
048%134%213%34%41%5+0% - Keshi Andersonprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.78
052%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Kyogo Furuhashiprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.85
054%129%211%34%42%51%6+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles49 playersHighest: Tomoki Iwata, 1.72 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Tomoki Iwataprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.72
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.84
019%130%226%315%47%52%6+1% - Seung-Ho Paikprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.80
022%131%224%313%46%52%6+1% - Jhon Elmer Solis Romeroprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.08
026%131%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Kai Wagnerprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.53
023%133%225%312%45%51%6+0% - Sydie Peckprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.72
026%131%223%312%45%52%6+1% - Phil Neumannprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.37
026%135%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Gustavo Hamerprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.64
030%133%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Christoph Klarerprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.30
027%135%223%310%43%51%6+0% - Callum O'Hareprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.58
031%133%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Jaïro Riedewaldprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.92
032%131%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Marc Leonardprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 2.50
035%131%218%39%44%52%6+1% - Japhet Tangangaprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.28
029%136%222%39%43%51%6+0% - Harrison Burrowsprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.51
033%132%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Jack Robinsonprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.49
030%135%222%39%43%51%6+0% - Femi Serikiprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.92
037%129%218%310%44%52%6+1% - Ben Meeprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.30
030%136%222%39%43%51%6+0% - Ollie Arblasterprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.90
036%131%219%39%44%51%6+0% - Alexander Cochraneprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.48
034%132%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Bright Osayi-Samuelprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.84
037%130%219%39%44%51%6+0% - Jack Robinsonprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.16
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.26
033%134%220%38%43%51%6+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots49 playersHighest: Patrick Bamford, 1.75 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Patrick Bamfordprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.75
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 2.42
025%127%221%313%47%54%6+3% - Jay Stansfieldprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.80
026%131%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Tyrese Campbellprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.32
034%130%218%310%45%52%6+1% - Demarai Grayprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.93
032%131%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Sydie Peckprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.48
034%131%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.77
036%130%218%39%44%52%6+1% - Gustavo Hamerprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.54
034%131%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Thomas Christopher Cannonprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 2.36
039%128%216%39%44%52%6+1% - Marvin Duckschprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.83
037%130%218%39%44%52%6+1% - Carlos Vicente Roblesprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.86
038%129%217%39%44%52%6+1% - August Priskeprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.92
041%129%216%38%44%52%6+1% - Callum O'Hareprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.35
038%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Tomoki Iwataprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.98
043%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Seung-Ho Paikprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.98
045%133%215%35%41%50%6+0% - Kyogo Furuhashiprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 2.12
050%129%212%35%42%51%6+1% - Keshi Andersonprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.97
050%129%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Daniel William John Ingsprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 26
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 2.74
053%129%211%34%42%51%6+1% - Jaïro Riedewaldprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.20
050%131%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Jhon Elmer Solis Romeroprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.07
049%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Ollie Arblasterprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.22
051%130%213%35%41%50%6+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target49 playersHighest: Patrick Bamford, 0.88 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Patrick Bamfordprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 0.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 1.21
046%131%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Tyrese Campbellprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.55
- O 0.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 0.96
060%128%29%32%41%5+0% - Marvin Duckschprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.53
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 0.80
061%127%29%32%40%5+0% - Carlos Vicente Roblesprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.52
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.81
062%126%28%32%41%5+0% - Jay Stansfieldprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.49
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.59
062%128%28%32%4+0% - Demarai Grayprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.62
067%126%26%31%4+0% - Thomas Christopher Cannonprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.78
069%123%26%31%4+0% - August Priskeprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.68
069%123%26%31%4+0% - Gustavo Hamerprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.39
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.48
069%124%25%31%4+0% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.52
071%123%25%31%4+0% - Sydie Peckprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.43
071%123%25%31%4+0% - Callum O'Hareprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.43
072%123%25%31%4+0% - Keshi Andersonprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.72
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Daniel William John Ingsprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 26
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.96
077%118%24%31%4+0% - Kyogo Furuhashiprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.70
077%118%23%31%4+0% - Jhon Elmer Solis Romeroprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.35
078%119%23%3+0% - Jaïro Riedewaldprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.38
079%118%23%3+0% - Lewis Koumasprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 32
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.68
080%117%23%3+1% - Tomoki Iwataprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.24
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.26
079%118%22%3+0% - Seung-Ho Paikprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.24
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.27
079%118%22%3+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won49 playersHighest: Femi Seriki, 1.26 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Femi Serikiprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.98
039%128%216%39%45%52%6+1% - Patrick Bamfordprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.56
038%131%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Callum O'Hareprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.32
039%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Tom Daviesprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.24
047%128%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Demarai Grayprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.46
041%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Gustavo Hamerprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.18
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.35
044%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Seung-Ho Paikprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.09
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Tomoki Iwataprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.01
042%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Carlos Vicente Roblesprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.42
046%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Sydie Peckprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.06
045%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Jay Stansfieldprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.07
044%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Harrison Burrowsprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.03
047%131%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Jhon Elmer Solis Romeroprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.15
047%132%214%35%42%50%6+0% - August Priskeprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.33
052%129%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Japhet Tangangaprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.80
048%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Ollie Arblasterprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.24
051%130%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Tyrese Campbellprovisional
FWD · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.34
051%130%213%34%41%50%6+0% - Marvin Duckschprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.16
051%130%213%34%41%50%6+0% - Jaïro Riedewaldprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.14
051%130%213%34%41%5+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards49 playersHighest: Sydie Peck, 0.16 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Sydie Peckprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%113%2+1% - Gustavo Hamerprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.19
086%113%2+1% - Tomoki Iwataprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Christoph Klarerprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.14
087%112%2+1% - Japhet Tangangaprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.14
087%112%2+1% - Seung-Ho Paikprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Jay Stansfieldprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Jhon Elmer Solis Romeroprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.18
088%111%2+1% - Phil Neumannprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.13
088%111%2+1% - Jack Robinsonprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Kai Wagnerprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.13
088%111%2+1% - Jack Robinsonprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%111%2+1% - Ben Meeprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%110%2+1% - Mark McGuinnessprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.14
089%110%2+1% - Adam Daviesprovisional
GK · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.12
089%110%2+1% - James Beadleprovisional
GK · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.11
089%110%2+1% - Bright Osayi-Samuelprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.17
090%110%2+1% - Michael Cooperprovisional
GK · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.11
089%110%2+1% - Alexander Cochraneprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.14
090%110%2+1% - Jaïro Riedewaldprovisional
MID · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.16
090%19%2+1%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves49 playersHighest: James Beadle, 2.96 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- James Beadleprovisional
GK · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.96
- O 2.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 2.96
07%117%222%320%415%59%6+10% - Ryan Allsopprovisional
GK · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.82
- O 2.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 2.82
08%118%222%320%414%59%6+9% - Michael Cooperprovisional
GK · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 2.44
- O 2.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.46
011%122%224%319%412%57%6+5% - Adam Daviesprovisional
GK · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 2.36
- O 2.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.44
012%123%224%318%412%56%6+5% - Christoph Klarerprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Phil Neumannprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Kai Wagnerprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Tomoki Iwataprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Seung-Ho Paikprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jay Stansfieldprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Alexander Cochraneprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jack Robinsonprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jhon Elmer Solis Romeroprovisional
MID · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Demarai Grayprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Japhet Tangangaprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Marvin Duckschprovisional
FWD · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Bright Osayi-Samuelprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ben Meeprovisional
DEF · Sheffield United
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jack Robinsonprovisional
DEF · Birmingham City
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.