La Liga · Spain
SevillavRayo Vallecano
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls38 playersHighest: Pathé Ciss, 1.09 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.46
039%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.56
041%131%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.02
037%135%218%37%42%50%6+0% - Lucien Agoumeprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.29
042%131%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Nemanja Gudeljprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.10
039%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Dodi Lukebakioprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.07
039%135%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.25
040%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.29
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Isaac Romero Bernalprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.40
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Randy Ntekjaprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.06
046%129%214%37%43%51%6+0% - Nobel Mendyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.12
041%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - José Ángel Carmona Navarroprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.05
042%135%216%36%42%5+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.46
045%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.01
044%133%215%35%42%5+0% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.14
045%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Andrei Florin Ratiuprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.91
045%134%215%35%41%5+0% - Ruben Vargasprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.13
046%133%214%35%41%5+0% - Adrià Giner Pedrosaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.01
047%132%214%35%41%5+0% - Gabriel Alonso Suazo Urbinaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.00
047%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Marcos do Nascimento Teixeiraprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.21
052%127%214%35%42%50%6+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles38 playersHighest: Lucien Agoume, 1.99 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Lucien Agoumeprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.99
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.56
021%123%222%317%410%55%6+3% - Andrei Florin Ratiuprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.71
022%131%225%314%46%52%6+1% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.59
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.43
027%128%221%313%47%53%6+1% - Gabriel Alonso Suazo Urbinaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.95
025%130%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Nemanja Gudeljprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.54
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.70
023%132%224%313%45%52%6+1% - José Ángel Carmona Navarroprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.53
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.74
023%132%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.04
027%130%222%313%46%52%6+1% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.51
022%133%225%313%45%51%6+0% - Adrià Giner Pedrosaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.50
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.88
027%129%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Enrique Jesús Salas Valienteprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.64
028%131%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.61
027%132%223%312%45%51%6+1% - Nobel Mendyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.37
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.63
027%134%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.14
032%131%220%311%44%51%6+1% - Andrés López Galloprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.69
033%131%220%310%44%51%6+0% - Joaquín Martínez Gaunaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.67
033%132%220%310%44%51%6+0% - Pedro Díaz Fanjulprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.11
036%130%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Marcos do Nascimento Teixeiraprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.65
043%126%217%39%44%51%6+0% - Luiz Felipe Ramos Marchiprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.90
043%129%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Randy Ntekjaprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 2.12
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.19
041%135%217%35%41%5+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots38 playersHighest: Dodi Lukebakio, 2.04 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Dodi Lukebakioprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 2.04
- O 1.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 2.24
017%126%223%316%49%55%6+4% - Ruben Vargasprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.67
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.29
025%129%222%313%47%53%6+2% - Isaac Romero Bernalprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.66
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.42
027%128%220%312%47%53%6+2% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.78
033%130%219%310%45%52%6+1% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.69
031%132%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.70
033%131%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Chidera Ejukeprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 2.77
041%130%215%37%43%52%6+1% - Gerard Fernández Castellanoprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 2.28
047%126%214%37%44%52%6+1% - Nemanja Gudeljprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.10
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Sergio Camello Pérezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.00
045%130%215%36%43%51%6+0% - Alexandre Zurawskiprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.95
047%129%214%36%43%51%6+1% - Alfonso González Martínezprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 2.73
049%128%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Francisco Perez Martinezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.82
047%131%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Lucien Agoumeprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.02
050%130%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.24
051%130%213%34%41%50%6+0% - Pedro Díaz Fanjulprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.19
055%128%211%34%41%5+0% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.64
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.86
056%129%211%33%41%5+0% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 1.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.83
061%127%29%32%41%5+0% - Randy Ntekjaprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 1.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 1.18
062%126%29%33%41%5+0% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 1.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.54
059%130%29%32%4+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target38 playersHighest: Dodi Lukebakio, 0.83 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Dodi Lukebakioprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 0.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 0.92
046%134%214%35%41%5+0% - Isaac Romero Bernalprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.60
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 0.88
058%129%210%33%41%5+0% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.52
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 0.67
061%129%28%32%4+0% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.50
- O 0.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 0.65
063%127%28%32%4+0% - Ruben Vargasprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.48
- O 0.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 0.66
063%127%27%32%4+0% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.58
067%126%26%31%4+0% - Alfonso González Martínezprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.19
070%122%26%32%4+0% - Alexandre Zurawskiprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.39
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.81
070%122%26%31%4+0% - Sergio Camello Pérezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.77
071%123%25%31%4+0% - Gerard Fernández Castellanoprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.78
073%121%25%31%4+0% - Chidera Ejukeprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.88
072%122%25%31%4+0% - Francisco Perez Martinezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.74
072%122%25%31%4+0% - Nemanja Gudeljprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.34
074%122%24%3+1% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.24
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.38
080%117%23%3+0% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.28
082%116%22%3+0% - Randy Ntekjaprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.45
082%115%22%3+0% - Lucien Agoumeprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.25
083%115%22%3+0% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.17
085%114%2+1% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.25
085%113%21%3+0% - Pedro Díaz Fanjulprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.27
086%112%21%3+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won38 playersHighest: Dodi Lukebakio, 1.53 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Dodi Lukebakioprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.53
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.68
026%131%222%312%46%52%6+1% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.45
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.94
031%129%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.52
035%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Ruben Vargasprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.57
037%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Isaac Romero Bernalprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.67
038%131%217%38%43%51%6+1% - Gerard Fernández Castellanoprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.41
045%126%214%38%44%52%6+1% - Nemanja Gudeljprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.16
039%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Alexandre Zurawskiprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.05
046%129%214%37%43%51%6+1% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.29
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.18
046%131%214%36%42%51%6+0% - José Ángel Carmona Navarroprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.00
044%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.33
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Francisco Perez Martinezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.76
048%131%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.32
049%130%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Sergio Camello Pérezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.67
051%129%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Lucien Agoumeprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.03
050%130%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.91
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Marcos do Nascimento Teixeiraprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.13
054%126%212%35%42%50%6+0% - Chidera Ejukeprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.86
053%129%211%34%42%51%6+0% - Alfonso González Martínezprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 2.09
056%127%211%34%42%51%6+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards38 playersHighest: Pathé Ciss, 0.20 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.27
082%116%22%3+0% - José Ángel Carmona Navarroprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.20
084%115%21%3+0% - Nobel Mendyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.21
084%114%21%3+0% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.16
085%114%2+1% - Andrei Florin Ratiuprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.17
085%113%2+1% - Isaac Romero Bernalprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.23
086%113%2+1% - Nemanja Gudeljprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.24
086%113%2+1% - Lucien Agoumeprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.19
086%112%2+1% - Marcos do Nascimento Teixeiraprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.22
087%112%2+1% - Gabriel Alonso Suazo Urbinaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.18
087%112%2+1% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.19
087%112%2+1% - Randy Ntekjaprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.30
087%111%2+1% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%112%2+1% - Andrés López Galloprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.17
088%111%2+1% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.20
088%111%2+1% - Adrià Giner Pedrosaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%111%2+1% - Enrique Jesús Salas Valienteprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.14
089%110%2+1% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%110%2+1% - Iván Balliu Campenyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.22
090%110%2+1%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves38 playersHighest: Daniel Cárdenas Lindez, 3.18 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Daniel Cárdenas Lindezprovisional
GK · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.18
- O 2.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 3.18
06%115%220%320%416%511%6+12% - Augusto Martín Batalla Bargaprovisional
GK · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.08
- O 2.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 3.08
06%116%221%320%415%510%6+11% - Odisseas Vlachodimosprovisional
GK · Sevilla
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.54
- O 2.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.54
010%121%224%319%413%57%6+6% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Andrei Florin Ratiuprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Nobel Mendyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dodi Lukebakioprovisional
FWD · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Nemanja Gudeljprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - José Ángel Carmona Navarroprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Enrique Jesús Salas Valienteprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Gabriel Alonso Suazo Urbinaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Adrià Giner Pedrosaprovisional
DEF · Sevilla
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lucien Agoumeprovisional
MID · Sevilla
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.