La Liga · Spain
EspanyolvReal Madrid
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls38 playersHighest: Pol Lozano Vizuete, 1.43 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Pol Lozano Vizueteprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.96
029%130%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Javier Puado Díazprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.23
035%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Urko González de Zarate Quirósprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.28
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Eduardo Expósito Jaénprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.48
038%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Aurélien Tchouaméniprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.17
037%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Jude Bellinghamprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.26
038%133%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júniorprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.20
039%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Roberto Fernández Jaénprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.33
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Omar El Hilaliprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.08
039%134%217%37%42%50%6+0% - Thiago Pitarch Pinarprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.49
041%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Eduardo Camavingaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.62
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - José Gragera Amadoprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.54
042%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Federico Santiago Valverde Dipettaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.03
040%135%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Kylian Mbappé Lottinprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.01
040%135%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Tyrhys Dolanprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.27
041%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Daniel Ceballos Fernándezprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.66
048%127%214%37%43%51%6+0% - Leandro Daniel Cabrera Sasíaprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.91
042%135%216%35%41%5+0% - Álvaro Carrerasprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.97
044%133%216%35%42%5+0% - Clemens Riedelprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.15
045%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Éder Gabriel Militãoprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.06
043%134%215%35%41%5+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles38 playersHighest: Jude Bellingham, 2.35 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Jude Bellinghamprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 2.35
- O 1.5
- 65%
- Model /90
- 2.83
013%121%223%319%412%56%6+5% - Álvaro Carrerasprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.85
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.00
020%126%225%317%48%53%6+2% - Omar El Hilaliprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.82
- O 1.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 1.98
018%128%225%316%48%53%6+1% - Urko González de Zarate Quirósprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.73
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.03
022%128%224%315%47%53%6+1% - Aurélien Tchouaméniprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.55
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.70
023%131%225%313%45%52%6+1% - Raúl Asencio del Rosarioprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.85
025%131%223%313%45%52%6+1% - Eduardo Camavingaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.48
030%128%219%312%46%53%6+2% - Eduardo Expósito Jaénprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.44
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.98
028%131%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Pol Lozano Vizueteprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.93
028%131%223%312%45%51%6+1% - Federico Santiago Valverde Dipettaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.49
026%134%223%311%44%51%6+0% - José Gragera Amadoprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.19
029%131%221%311%45%52%6+1% - Leandro Daniel Cabrera Sasíaprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.35
027%135%223%310%44%51%6+0% - Clemens Riedelprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.70
031%131%221%311%44%51%6+0% - Éder Gabriel Militãoprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.56
029%134%222%310%43%51%6+0% - Arda Gulerprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.14
034%130%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Thiago Pitarch Pinarprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.92
032%132%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Dean Donny Huijsenprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.48
032%134%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Daniel Ceballos Fernándezprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.18
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.13
040%127%217%39%44%52%6+1% - Antonio Rüdigerprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.26
034%135%220%38%42%51%6+0% - Ferland Mendyprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.54
038%131%219%38%43%51%6+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots38 playersHighest: Kylian Mbappé Lottin, 2.25 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Kylian Mbappé Lottinprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 2.25
- O 1.5
- 61%
- Model /90
- 2.39
015%124%223%317%411%56%6+5% - Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júniorprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.80
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.10
022%128%222%314%48%54%6+3% - Javier Puado Díazprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.75
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 1.94
023%128%223%314%47%53%6+2% - Roberto Fernández Jaénprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.01
028%130%221%312%46%53%6+2% - Tyrhys Dolanprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.45
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.94
028%131%221%311%45%52%6+1% - Pere Milla Peñaprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 2.57
037%129%217%39%45%52%6+2% - Rodrygo Silva de Goesprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.21
036%129%217%39%45%52%6+1% - Enrique García Martínezprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.30
040%129%216%38%44%52%6+1% - Jofre Carreras Pagèsprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 2.07
040%130%216%38%44%51%6+1% - Brahim Abdelkader Diazprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 2.14
044%129%215%37%43%51%6+1% - Jude Bellinghamprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.21
041%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Federico Santiago Valverde Dipettaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.07
040%134%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Aurélien Tchouaméniprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.97
044%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Antoniu Roca Vivesprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 34
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 2.25
051%128%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Eduardo Expósito Jaénprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.14
048%132%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Urko González de Zarate Quirósprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.93
049%132%214%35%41%5+0% - Arda Gulerprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.28
052%129%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Thiago Pitarch Pinarprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.70
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.06
053%131%212%34%41%5+0% - José Gragera Amadoprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.10
053%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Pol Lozano Vizueteprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.93
054%131%211%33%41%5+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target38 playersHighest: Kylian Mbappé Lottin, 1.06 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Kylian Mbappé Lottinprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 0.5
- 62%
- Model /90
- 1.12
038%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júniorprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 0.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 0.84
051%132%212%34%41%5+0% - Javier Puado Díazprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.67
- O 0.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 0.74
053%131%211%33%41%5+0% - Roberto Fernández Jaénprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.60
- O 0.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 0.79
057%129%210%33%41%5+0% - Tyrhys Dolanprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.53
- O 0.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 0.71
060%129%28%32%4+0% - Enrique García Martínezprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.50
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.97
064%125%28%32%41%5+0% - Rodrygo Silva de Goesprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.50
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.84
064%126%28%32%40%5+0% - Pere Milla Peñaprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.49
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.96
064%125%28%32%40%5+0% - Brahim Abdelkader Diazprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.49
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.01
065%125%28%32%40%5+0% - Jude Bellinghamprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 0.49
068%125%26%31%4+0% - Federico Santiago Valverde Dipettaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.38
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.41
069%125%25%31%4+0% - Jofre Carreras Pagèsprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.67
071%122%25%31%4+0% - Antoniu Roca Vivesprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 34
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.83
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Arda Gulerprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.48
076%120%24%3+1% - Eduardo Expósito Jaénprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.35
078%119%23%3+0% - Thiago Pitarch Pinarprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.22
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.33
081%117%22%3+0% - Urko González de Zarate Quirósprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.24
082%116%22%3+0% - Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousaprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 18
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.06
083%114%22%31%4+0% - José Gragera Amadoprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.32
082%116%22%3+0% - Pol Lozano Vizueteprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.28
082%116%22%3+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won38 playersHighest: Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior, 1.64 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júniorprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.64
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.92
025%129%222%313%46%53%6+2% - Kylian Mbappé Lottinprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.42
030%132%221%310%44%52%6+1% - Jude Bellinghamprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.53
033%131%219%310%44%51%6+1% - Eduardo Camavingaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.05
038%129%217%39%44%52%6+1% - Tyrhys Dolanprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.47
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Javier Puado Díazprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.21
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Roberto Fernández Jaénprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.43
039%132%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Rodrygo Silva de Goesprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.76
043%130%216%37%43%51%6+1% - Jofre Carreras Pagèsprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.86
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+1% - Urko González de Zarate Quirósprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.16
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Aurélien Tchouaméniprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.09
041%133%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Brahim Abdelkader Diazprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.02
046%129%214%36%43%51%6+1% - Enrique García Martínezprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.76
048%129%213%36%42%51%6+0% - Arda Gulerprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.50
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Eduardo Expósito Jaénprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.23
045%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Federico Santiago Valverde Dipettaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.96
044%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Thiago Pitarch Pinarprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.31
046%131%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Pere Milla Peñaprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.66
049%129%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Daniel Ceballos Fernándezprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.48
052%127%212%35%42%51%6+0% - José Gragera Amadoprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.25
050%131%213%35%41%50%6+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards38 playersHighest: Pol Lozano Vizuete, 0.23 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Pol Lozano Vizueteprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.32
080%118%22%3+0% - Eduardo Expósito Jaénprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.26
083%115%22%3+0% - Aurélien Tchouaméniprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.19
084%114%21%3+0% - Omar El Hilaliprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.19
084%114%2+1% - Javier Puado Díazprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.18
085%114%2+1% - Dean Donny Huijsenprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.20
085%114%2+1% - Álvaro Carrerasprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.18
085%114%2+1% - Urko González de Zarate Quirósprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%113%2+1% - Clemens Riedelprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.20
086%113%2+1% - Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júniorprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.18
086%113%2+1% - Leandro Daniel Cabrera Sasíaprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.15
086%113%2+1% - Federico Santiago Valverde Dipettaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%112%2+1% - Jude Bellinghamprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.17
087%112%2+1% - Thiago Pitarch Pinarprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.22
087%112%2+1% - Raúl Asencio del Rosarioprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.17
087%112%2+1% - Éder Gabriel Militãoprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.17
087%112%2+1% - Daniel Ceballos Fernándezprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.25
088%111%2+1% - Antonio Rüdigerprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Tyrhys Dolanprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.17
088%111%2+1% - Kylian Mbappé Lottinprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves38 playersHighest: Marko Dmitrović, 2.96 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Marko Dmitrovićprovisional
GK · Espanyol
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.96
- O 2.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.96
07%117%222%320%415%59%6+10% - Andriy Luninprovisional
GK · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.84
- O 2.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 2.84
08%118%222%320%414%59%6+9% - Thibaut Courtoisprovisional
GK · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.75
- O 2.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.75
08%119%223%320%414%58%6+8% - Kylian Mbappé Lottinprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Federico Santiago Valverde Dipettaprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Aurélien Tchouaméniprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Álvaro Carrerasprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Antonio Rüdigerprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júniorprovisional
FWD · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Éder Gabriel Militãoprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Raúl Asencio del Rosarioprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Leandro Daniel Cabrera Sasíaprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jude Bellinghamprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dean Donny Huijsenprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Javier Puado Díazprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Omar El Hilaliprovisional
DEF · Espanyol
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ferland Mendyprovisional
DEF · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Urko González de Zarate Quirósprovisional
MID · Espanyol
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Thiago Pitarch Pinarprovisional
MID · Real Madrid
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Roberto Fernández Jaénprovisional
FWD · Espanyol
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.