La Liga · Spain
ValenciavCelta de Vigo
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls39 playersHighest: Guido Rodríguez, 1.14 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Guido Rodríguezprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.25
035%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.43
040%130%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.34
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.66
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.32
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Umar Sadiq Mesbahprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.82
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - César Tárrega Requeniprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.00
041%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.09
042%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Javier Guerra Morenoprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.29
044%131%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.43
046%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.94
042%135%216%35%41%5+0% - José Luis García Vayáprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.32
047%129%215%36%42%51%6+0% - José Manuel Arias Copeteprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.94
043%135%215%35%41%5+0% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.06
045%133%215%35%41%5+0% - José Luis Gayá Peñaprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.00
044%134%215%35%41%5+0% - Carl Starfeltprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.96
045%134%215%35%41%5+0% - Hugo Álvarez Antúnezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.43
047%131%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Jesus Vazquez Alcaldeprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.73
051%128%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Domingos André Ribeiro Almeidaprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.40
049%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Hugo Duro Peralesprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.21
047%132%214%35%41%50%6+0%
20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles39 playersHighest: José Luis García Vayá, 1.86 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- José Luis García Vayáprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.86
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.73
026%123%219%315%49%55%6+3% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.82
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.44
022%127%222%315%48%54%6+2% - Guido Rodríguezprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.75
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.92
020%129%224%315%47%53%6+1% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.72
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.99
022%127%224%315%47%53%6+1% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.61
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.10
028%126%221%314%47%53%6+1% - José Luis Gayá Peñaprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.85
021%131%225%314%46%52%6+1% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.55
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.01
025%130%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Carl Starfeltprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.64
025%132%224%312%45%52%6+1% - José Manuel Arias Copeteprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.49
026%134%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.44
026%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.37
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.68
029%132%222%311%44%51%6+1% - Carlos Domínguez Cáceresprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.81
032%130%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Dimitri Foulquierprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.61
031%132%221%311%44%51%6+0% - César Tárrega Requeniprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.39
028%134%223%310%44%51%6+0% - Domingos André Ribeiro Almeidaprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.18
034%129%219%310%45%52%6+1% - Sergio Carreira Vilariñoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.53
030%133%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.96
035%130%219%310%44%51%6+1% - Filip Ugrinicprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.89
036%132%219%39%43%51%6+0% - Javier Guerra Morenoprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.62
036%132%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Manuel Fernández Arroyoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.79
040%130%217%38%43%51%6+0%
20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots39 playersHighest: Luis Jesús Rioja González, 1.60 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Luis Jesús Rioja Gonzálezprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.91
025%130%222%313%46%53%6+2% - Hugo Duro Peralesprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.50
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.17
030%129%220%311%46%53%6+2% - Diego López Noguerolprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.40
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.00
032%129%219%311%45%52%6+1% - Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveldprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.30
034%129%218%310%45%52%6+2% - Umar Sadiq Mesbahprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.38
037%129%217%39%44%52%6+1% - Iago Aspas Juncalprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.18
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.26
041%128%215%38%44%52%6+1% - Ferran Jutlgà Blancprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.90
038%131%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.86
040%130%216%38%43%51%6+1% - Pablo Durán Fernándezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.95
043%129%215%38%43%51%6+1% - Guido Rodríguezprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.12
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Hugo Álvarez Antúnezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.69
043%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Javier Guerra Morenoprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.35
044%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Williot Swedbergprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.01
044%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Jones El-Abdellaouiprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 30
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 2.25
054%129%211%34%42%51%6+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.97
052%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Filip Ugrinicprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.16
053%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Sergi Canós Tenesprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 22
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 2.94
054%130%211%34%41%51%6+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.92
052%131%212%34%41%5+0% - José Luis García Vayáprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.04
054%128%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Daniel Raba Antolíprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 20
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 2.93
060%125%29%34%42%51%6+0%
20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target39 playersHighest: Ferran Jutlgà Blanc, 0.58 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Ferran Jutlgà Blancprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.58
- O 0.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 0.95
059%128%29%33%41%5+0% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.58
- O 0.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 0.97
059%128%29%33%41%5+0% - Hugo Duro Peralesprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.57
- O 0.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 0.82
060%128%29%32%41%5+0% - Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveldprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.53
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.88
062%127%28%32%41%5+0% - Iago Aspas Juncalprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.51
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.98
064%125%28%32%41%5+0% - Luis Jesús Rioja Gonzálezprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.49
- O 0.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 0.59
063%128%28%32%4+0% - Umar Sadiq Mesbahprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.48
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 0.90
065%125%27%32%40%5+0% - Diego López Noguerolprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.48
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.68
064%126%27%32%4+0% - Hugo Álvarez Antúnezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.72
067%124%26%31%4+0% - Williot Swedbergprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.42
- O 0.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 0.88
068%125%26%31%4+0% - Pablo Durán Fernándezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.42
- O 0.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 0.76
068%124%26%31%4+0% - Guido Rodríguezprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.35
073%122%24%3+1% - Javier Guerra Morenoprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.39
076%120%23%3+1% - Sergi Canós Tenesprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 22
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.05
079%118%23%30%4+0% - Jones El-Abdellaouiprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 30
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.76
079%117%23%31%4+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.22
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.29
081%117%22%3+0% - Daniel Raba Antolíprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 20
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.95
082%115%23%3+1% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.28
082%116%22%3+0% - Domingos André Ribeiro Almeidaprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.33
083%115%22%3+0% - José Luis García Vayáprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.28
083%115%22%3+0%
20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won39 playersHighest: Guido Rodríguez, 1.25 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Guido Rodríguezprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.37
034%132%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Luis Jesús Rioja Gonzálezprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.44
035%132%219%39%43%51%6+1% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.18
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.58
038%130%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Hugo Duro Peralesprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.65
038%131%217%38%43%51%6+1% - Diego López Noguerolprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.50
041%131%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveldprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.68
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+1% - Ferran Jutlgà Blancprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.59
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Umar Sadiq Mesbahprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.80
046%130%214%36%43%51%6+1% - Iago Aspas Juncalprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.83
047%128%214%36%43%51%6+1% - Domingos André Ribeiro Almeidaprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.54
047%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - José Luis García Vayáprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.34
047%128%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Williot Swedbergprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.92
045%131%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.19
047%129%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.51
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Hugo Álvarez Antúnezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.50
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.16
045%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.02
045%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Pablo Durán Fernándezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.56
049%129%213%36%42%51%6+0% - Javier Guerra Morenoprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.14
049%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.26
050%129%213%35%42%50%6+0%
20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards39 playersHighest: Marcos Alonso Mendoza, 0.19 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.19
083%115%22%3+0% - Guido Rodríguezprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%114%21%3+0% - José Luis Gayá Peñaprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%114%2+1% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%113%2+1% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.22
085%113%21%3+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.21
086%113%21%3+0% - José Manuel Arias Copeteprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - César Tárrega Requeniprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.19
086%112%2+1% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.17
087%112%2+1% - Carl Starfeltprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.15
087%112%2+1% - José Luis García Vayáprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.20
087%111%2+1% - Javier Rueda Garcíaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.22
088%111%2+1% - Jesus Vazquez Alcaldeprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.27
088%111%2+1% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.20
088%111%2+1% - Dimitri Foulquierprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%111%2+1% - Javier Guerra Morenoprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.17
088%111%2+1% - Carlos Domínguez Cáceresprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.17
088%111%2+1% - Manuel Fernández Arroyoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.20
089%110%2+1% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.21
089%110%2+1%
20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves39 playersHighest: Ionuț Andrei Radu, 3.02 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Ionuț Andrei Raduprovisional
GK · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.02
- O 2.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 3.02
07%116%221%320%415%510%6+11% - Stole Dimitrievskiprovisional
GK · Valencia
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.42
- O 2.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.42
011%122%224%319%412%56%6+5% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Carl Starfeltprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sergio Carreira Vilariñoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Carlos Domínguez Cáceresprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - César Tárrega Requeniprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - José Manuel Arias Copeteprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Guido Rodríguezprovisional
MID · Valencia
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - José Luis Gayá Peñaprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ferran Jutlgà Blancprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dimitri Foulquierprovisional
DEF · Valencia
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Luis Jesús Rioja Gonzálezprovisional
FWD · Valencia
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Javier Rueda Garcíaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.