La Liga · Spain
FC BarcelonavRayo Vallecano
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls42 playersHighest: Pathé Ciss, 1.06 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.42
039%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.52
042%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.00
038%135%218%36%42%50%6+0% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.22
041%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.25
043%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebanaprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.01
042%135%216%36%42%5+0% - Randy Ntekjaprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 2.00
047%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Pablo Martín Paez Gaviriaprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.81
048%128%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Nobel Mendyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.08
042%134%216%35%41%5+0% - Robert Lewandowskiprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.12
044%133%216%35%42%5+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.42
046%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.98
045%133%215%35%41%5+0% - Marc Casadó Torrasprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.39
049%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.11
046%133%215%35%41%5+0% - Daniel Olmo Carvajalprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.31
047%132%214%35%41%5+0% - Fermín López Marínprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.40
048%132%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Andrei Florin Ratiuprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.88
046%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Pedro González Lópezprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.94
047%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Eric García Martretprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.03
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Raphael Dias Belloliprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.94
048%133%213%34%41%5+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles42 playersHighest: Andrei Florin Ratiu, 1.64 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Andrei Florin Ratiuprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.64
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.76
022%130%225%314%46%52%6+1% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.49
026%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Gerard Martín Langreoprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.69
032%124%218%313%47%53%6+2% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.09
026%129%222%313%46%52%6+1% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 1.55
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.55
021%133%225%313%45%52%6+1% - Pedro González Lópezprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.81
024%132%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.45
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.65
027%131%223%312%45%52%6+1% - Eric García Martretprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.88
029%130%221%312%45%52%6+1% - Jules Koundéprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.62
027%132%223%312%45%52%6+1% - Nobel Mendyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.40
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.68
026%133%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.20
031%131%221%311%45%52%6+1% - Marc Casadó Torrasprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.03
037%128%218%310%44%52%6+1% - Pedro Díaz Fanjulprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 2.17
035%130%218%310%44%52%6+1% - Pau Cubarsí Paredesprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.38
030%134%222%39%43%51%6+0% - Frenkie de Jongprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.99
036%131%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Pablo Martín Paez Gaviriaprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 2.32
040%127%217%39%44%52%6+1% - Fermín López Marínprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.96
036%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Alejandro Balde Martínezprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.43
035%134%219%38%42%51%6+0% - Daniel Olmo Carvajalprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.72
037%134%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Marc Bernal Casasprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.32
044%128%215%38%44%51%6+1%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots42 playersHighest: Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana, 2.36 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebanaprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 2.36
- O 1.5
- 63%
- Model /90
- 2.60
014%123%222%317%411%56%6+6% - Raphael Dias Belloliprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 2.06
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.54
018%126%222%316%49%55%6+4% - Robert Lewandowskiprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.92
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.41
021%126%222%315%48%54%6+3% - Ferrán Torres Garcíaprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.48
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 2.60
032%129%219%311%46%53%6+2% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.52
038%131%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.44
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.45
038%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Daniel Olmo Carvajalprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.59
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Fermín López Marínprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.62
044%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Roony Bardghjiprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 2.77
048%128%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Pedro González Lópezprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.07
044%133%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Marc Casadó Torrasprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.38
050%128%213%36%42%51%6+0% - Sergio Camello Pérezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.71
050%130%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Alexandre Zurawskiprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.67
052%128%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Pablo Martín Paez Gaviriaprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.53
054%127%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Francisco Perez Martinezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.55
052%130%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 1.06
056%129%211%33%41%5+0% - Frenkie de Jongprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.64
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 1.07
057%128%210%33%41%5+0% - Pedro Díaz Fanjulprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.58
- O 1.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 1.01
060%127%29%33%41%5+0% - Marc Bernal Casasprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.58
- O 1.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 1.25
062%125%29%33%41%5+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target42 playersHighest: Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana, 0.78 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebanaprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 0.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 0.86
048%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Robert Lewandowskiprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 0.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 0.98
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Raphael Dias Belloliprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 0.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 0.95
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Ferrán Torres Garcíaprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.70
- O 0.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.23
054%129%211%34%41%5+0% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.44
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 0.58
065%127%27%31%4+0% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.42
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.55
067%125%26%31%4+0% - Roony Bardghjiprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.21
070%122%26%32%40%5+0% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.49
070%123%25%31%4+0% - Pedro González Lópezprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.42
071%123%25%31%4+0% - Fermín López Marínprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.59
072%122%25%31%4+0% - Alexandre Zurawskiprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.33
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.69
074%121%25%31%4+0% - Daniel Olmo Carvajalprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.33
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.53
073%122%24%31%4+0% - Sergio Camello Pérezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.66
074%121%24%31%4+0% - Francisco Perez Martinezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.63
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Frenkie de Jongprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.35
082%116%22%3+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.33
082%116%22%3+0% - Pablo Martín Paez Gaviriaprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.40
083%115%22%3+0% - Marc Bernal Casasprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.39
084%113%22%3+0% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.24
084%114%22%3+0% - Randy Ntekjaprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.38
085%114%22%3+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won42 playersHighest: Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana, 1.58 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebanaprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.58
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.74
025%130%222%312%46%53%6+2% - Robert Lewandowskiprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.63
033%131%220%310%44%52%6+1% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.64
036%131%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Pedro González Lópezprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.44
034%132%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Raphael Dias Belloliprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.18
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.46
035%133%219%39%43%51%6+1% - Pablo Martín Paez Gaviriaprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 2.22
044%126%215%38%44%52%6+1% - Marc Casadó Torrasprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.80
042%128%216%38%44%51%6+1% - Daniel Olmo Carvajalprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.75
039%132%217%38%43%51%6+1% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.29
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Fermín López Marínprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.55
046%131%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Ferrán Torres Garcíaprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.54
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Frenkie de Jongprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.44
048%130%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Alexandre Zurawskiprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.73
051%128%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.09
047%132%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.00
051%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Jules Koundéprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.85
051%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Alejandro Balde Martínezprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.96
051%131%212%34%41%5+0% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.13
052%130%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Roony Bardghjiprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 2.14
056%127%211%34%42%51%6+0% - Francisco Perez Martinezprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.49
053%130%211%34%41%50%6+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards42 playersHighest: Pathé Ciss, 0.20 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.27
082%116%22%3+0% - Nobel Mendyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.20
084%114%2+1% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.16
085%113%2+1% - Andrei Florin Ratiuprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.24
087%112%2+1% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.18
087%112%2+1% - Randy Ntekjaprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.30
088%111%2+1% - Eric García Martretprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.17
088%111%2+1% - Pablo Martín Paez Gaviriaprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.26
088%111%2+1% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Jules Koundéprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.19
088%111%2+1% - Raphael Dias Belloliprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%111%2+1% - Pedro González Lópezprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.14
089%111%2+1% - Frenkie de Jongprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.20
089%110%2+1% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%110%2+1% - Marc Casadó Torrasprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.18
089%110%2+1% - Gerard Martín Langreoprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.19
090%110%2+1% - Pau Cubarsí Paredesprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.12
089%110%2+1% - Fermín López Marínprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.19
090%110%2+1%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves42 playersHighest: Daniel Cárdenas Lindez, 3.35 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Daniel Cárdenas Lindezprovisional
GK · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.35
- O 2.5
- 62%
- Model /90
- 3.35
05%114%219%320%416%511%6+15% - Augusto Martín Batalla Bargaprovisional
GK · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.25
- O 2.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 3.25
06%114%220%320%416%511%6+13% - Joan García Ponsprovisional
GK · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.47
- O 2.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.47
010%122%224%319%412%57%6+6% - Wojciech Szczęsnyprovisional
GK · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.35
- O 2.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.35
012%123%225%319%411%56%6+5% - Florian Lejeuneprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Andrei Florin Ratiuprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Josep María Chavarría Pérezprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Nobel Mendyprovisional
DEF · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jorge De Frutos Sebastiánprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Álvaro García Riveraprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Isaac Palazón Camachoprovisional
FWD · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Pathé Cissprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Unai López Cabreraprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebanaprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Pau Cubarsí Paredesprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jules Koundéprovisional
DEF · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Pedro Díaz Fanjulprovisional
MID · Rayo Vallecano
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Pedro González Lópezprovisional
MID · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Raphael Dias Belloliprovisional
FWD · FC Barcelona
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.